Growth, inflation and hiring in the United States are all cooling toward a more sustainable pace, which will most likely define the second half of the year as the Federal Reserve gets ready to reduce its restrictive policy rate. While the fiscal tailwinds that have bolstered the economy are ... READ MORE >
interest rates
Canada’s economic outlook: The dawn of recovery
The Canadian economy will turn a corner toward recovery in the second half of the year, setting the stage for a true revival next year. Although Canada has managed to avoid a recession, the lack of growth has been discouraging as elevated interest rates have taken their toll. The good news is ... READ MORE >
Canada’s unemployment rate rose to 6.4 per cent, calling for further rate cuts
Canada's jobs report for June underscores the weakness of the labour market and calls for another rate cut in July. The economy lost 1,400 jobs in June. The unemployment rate jumped by 0.2 percentage points to 6.4 per cent and the employment rate fell by 0.2 percentage points to 61.1 per cent. Job ... READ MORE >
Slower pace of hiring in June bolsters case for Fed rate cut
This is what an economy normalizing back toward long-term trends in growth, inflation and hiring looks like. In June, the American economy generated 206,000 jobs while the unemployment rate increased to 4.1%, or 4.054% when taken out to three decimal points. At the same time, wage growth eased to ... READ MORE >
Job openings rise as the labor market marches toward normalization
Labor demand remained strong in May, bolstering hirings during the month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Tuesday. Job openings edged up unexpectedly to 8.14 million from a downwardly revised 7.92 million in April. The increase in job openings is in line with our forecast for another strong ... READ MORE >
Manufacturing sector weakens in June
Manufacturing sentiment fell into contraction in June after only three months of barely growing, the Institute for Supply Management reported on Monday. As the Federal Reserve continues to hold interest rates at an elevated level, demand for manufacturing goods has been dampened for most of the ... READ MORE >
June jobs report preview: Beveridge curve implies a balanced labor market as hiring cools
The labor market and inflation have finally come into balance. As Mary Daly, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, said recently, the inflection point where unemployment risks could trump inflation risks “is getting nearer.” Now, the risk is that as the economy cools, hiring will slow ... READ MORE >
Fed’s key inflation gauge continues to cool in May as income increases by 0.5%
The Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation continued to ease in May as the personal consumption expenditures Index remained unchanged on the month and rose by 2.6% from a year ago. The core PCE index, which excludes the more volatile food and energy components, advanced by 0.1% and increased ... READ MORE >
Slower growth raises prospect of a Fed rate cut
Economic growth appeared much softer in the first five months of the year following the release of key economic data on Thursday. Slower-than-anticipated growth should push the Federal Reserve closer to cutting interest rates. Read more of RSM's insights on the economy, manufacturing and the middle ... READ MORE >
Canada’s inflation rises to 2.9% but rate cut remains on the table
Disinflation will be the theme in the Canadian economy for the rest of the year, despite the inflation uptick in May. Inflation rose to 2.9 per cent on a year-over-year basis in May, with a 0.6 per cent monthly increase, Statistics Canada reported on Tuesday. Core inflation measures also rose slightly ... READ MORE >