We expect the Federal Reserve to cut its policy rate by 25 basis points at its meeting on Thursday to a range between 4.5% and 4.75%. … READ MORE >
interest rates
Distortions in the October U.S. jobs report mask underlying strength
We would urge investors, firm managers and policymakers not to overinterpret the temporary factors driving the top-line decline and to expect a similar dynamic in the November jobs estimate. … READ MORE >
Strong gains in Income and spending boost economic growth in September
American households are well positioned to keep spending at a 3% to 3.5% pace as inflation moves back to 2% and real wages continue to increase. … READ MORE >
American economic outperformance continues as GDP expands by 2.8%
The U.S. economy continues to show strength, with full employment, price stability and strong productivity gains. … READ MORE >
Consumer confidence strengthens despite cooling labor demand
Job openings fell to 7.4 million, the fewest since 2021, from 7.86 million, while hirings rose to 5.56 million from 5.4 million according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. … READ MORE >
Financial conditions improve in Canada and U.S., setting stage for growth
Financial conditions continue to improve both in Canada as well as the United States, signaling stability in markets and setting the groundwork for economic growth. … READ MORE >
October jobs report will be distorted by hurricane and strike
We expect a top-line gain in total employment of roughly 120,000 jobs, which is approximately 80,000 below what our model would otherwise imply. … READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims fall despite hurricane’s impact
Total initial claims dropped to 227,000 from 242,000 for the week ending Oct. 18, the Labor Department reported on Thursday. … READ MORE >
Bank of Canada cuts rates by half point amid slow growth
We expect the policy rate to fall to 3.5 per cent by the end of the year and return to a terminal rate of 2.75 per cent in the first half of 2025. … READ MORE >
Housing starts and permits ease in September
September’s housing starts came in at 1.35 million, down 0.5% from August, while building permits, a proxy for future projects, fell 2.9% to 1.4 million. … READ MORE >