The economic tailwind that has supported an average increase of 3.1% in household consumption since 2023 continued into January as robust demand for labor resulted in a 143,000 increase in total employment and an unemployment rate of 4%. The January jobs report, released on Friday, shows a resilient ... READ MORE >
Jerome Powell
Fed pauses rate cuts as inflation flattens out and policy changes loom
The Federal Reserve on Wednesday held its policy rate in a range between 4.25% and 4.5% and said it would remain on pause in the near term. The Fed’s decisions set up an inevitable clash with President Trump, who is on record as wanting lower rates in contrast with the hawkish pause adopted by the ... READ MORE >
Morning market minute: The questions that Powell will not want to answer
When Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell meets the news media today, he will face difficult questions on trade, tariffs, immigration and fiscal policy. His answers to those questions will drive whatever volatility takes place across asset classes given the sensitivity of the U.S. 10-year Treasury ... READ MORE >
Fed cuts rates as it signals a prudent pause to assess policy uncertainty
The Federal Reserve reduced its policy rate by 25 basis points to a range between 4.25% and 4.5% at its meeting on Wednesday while communicating to policymakers and the public that its reductions will be on pause until it gets a better sense of the policy changes to come. We are updating our ... READ MORE >
Fed cuts rate by a quarter point ahead of a possible pause
The Federal Open Market Committee reduced the federal funds rate by 25 basis points on Wednesday to a range between 4.5% and 4.75%. Slowing inflation and strong productivity gains imply that the Fed has ample room to keep cutting rates next year. The major takeaway from the policy statement is ... READ MORE >
Fed cuts rates to support a soft landing in the economy
The Federal Reserve on Wednesday reduced its policy rate by 50 basis points to a range between 4.75% and 5% to protect full employment and preserve the soft landing it has achieved following a historic price shock. The central bank also laid out a path of monetary policy that suggests additional 25 ... READ MORE >
FOMC preview: Why the Fed’s pivot to lower rates matters
The Federal Open Market Committee’s meeting on Sept. 18 will implement a significant turn away from a focus on price stability—which has been achieved—to supporting maximum sustainable employment. In turn, the policy pivot will create the conditions for greater fixed business investment, increased ... READ MORE >
Expect strong U.S. jobs report for August, but the devil is in the details
We expect a net gain in total employment of 175,000 jobs and an unemployment rate of 4.2% when the U.S. jobs report is released on Sept. 6. In addition, we expect average hourly earnings to increase by 0.3% on the month and for the year-ago figure to cool slightly to a 3.5% gain. The key to any ... READ MORE >
Powell at Jackson Hole: Policy pivot signals the start of rate cuts
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech at the Kansas City Fed symposium on monetary policy in Jackson Hole, Wyo., showed that the central bank is preparing for a policy pivot toward a rate cut designed to protect and preserve the economic soft landing achieved by the Fed. In his statement, ... READ MORE >
Fed holds rates steady as it sets up for September cut
The Federal Open Market Committee kept its federal funds policy rate between a range of 5.25% and 5.5% at its meeting Wednesday while signaling that it is moving toward easing its restrictive policy rate. We expect that the FOMC will reduce the policy rate by 25 basis points at its September ... READ MORE >