We expect a total increase in employment of 105,000 jobs for February with the unemployment rate holding steady at 6.3% when the Labor Department releases its monthly data on Friday. The primary narrative for the month will be the contrast between the true level of unemployment in the economy and the ... READ MORE >
jobs report
U.S. employment report: A weak gain in jobs and a nonvirtuous decline in the jobless rate to 6.3%
The intense debate over whether there needs to be a large fiscal stimulus package was supplemented by a weak U.S. employment report for January that saw an anemic gain of 49,000 jobs while 406,000 people exited the workforce. That exodus of workers was the primary catalyst for a decline in the ... READ MORE >
Employment report preview: Policy implications paramount following January data
We expect that the December employment downturn will be a one-month occurrence and that the January data, to be released Friday, will show a gain of 190,000 jobs and a decline in the unemployment rate to 6.6%. It is almost certain that the Labor Department's report will have a larger impact on ... READ MORE >
U.S. December employment report: Temporary stall in hiring
Hiring in the American economy declined by 140,000 in December as firms felt the effects of the six-month delay by the political sector in providing fiscal aid to the public, and the subsequent pulling back in economic activity. This data, released by the Labor Department on Friday, will tend to ... READ MORE >
December payroll preview: State and local government employment to continue contracting
We expect the December U.S. employment report to reflect the strains across the real economy associated with the pandemic, which intensified during the final month of the year. We now anticipate a decline of 75,000 jobs in total U.S. employment and an increase in the unemployment rate to 6.8% when the ... READ MORE >
U.S. November employment report: Winter is coming
The recall of workers and job creation continued to slow in November to 245,000, while the unemployment rate declined to 6.7%, just ahead of what is likely to be a pandemic-induced drag on domestic labor market conditions over the next few months. Current lockdown measures, reflected by the churn ... READ MORE >
November jobs preview: Employment-to-population ratio and the likelihood of a double-dip recession
Economic growth likely slowed in November because of the significant breakout of COVID-19 throughout the country. As such, we expect that improvement in the labor market will continue to slow to near 370,000 jobs on the month with the unemployment rate falling to 6.8% when the Labor Department releases ... READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Estimating unemployment during the pandemic
Friday's headline U3 unemployment rate of 6.9% understates the number of out-of-work people, not by design, but by the peculiar circumstances of the pandemic. In our estimation, this needs to be taken into account by policymakers around decisions on fiscal stimulus and other policies to stimulate ... READ MORE >
U.S. employment report: Unequivocally strong numbers
The end of the 2020 census and the loss of its workers masked a robust 906,000 increase in private-sector payrolls in October that was far stronger than the implied figure of 638,000 would suggest. In addition, the decline in the unemployment rate to 6.9% occurred even as 724,000 workers re-entered ... READ MORE >
U.S. employment report preview: Sustained improvement, downside risk
We expect total employment to increase by 580,000 and the unemployment rate to fall to 7.6% when the October estimate of employment conditions in the United States is released on Friday. While we anticipate a solid number, it is equally clear that the recall of workers is slowing and that the number of ... READ MORE >