The end of the 2020 census and the loss of its workers masked a robust 906,000 increase in private-sector payrolls in October that was far stronger than the implied figure of 638,000 would suggest. In addition, the decline in the unemployment rate to 6.9% occurred even as 724,000 workers re-entered ... READ MORE >
jobs report
U.S. employment report preview: Sustained improvement, downside risk
We expect total employment to increase by 580,000 and the unemployment rate to fall to 7.6% when the October estimate of employment conditions in the United States is released on Friday. While we anticipate a solid number, it is equally clear that the recall of workers is slowing and that the number of ... READ MORE >
September jobs report preview: Expect the recall of workers to slow
We expect a net gain of 850,000 in total employment when the jobs report for September is released on Friday. That figure, though, represents a slowing of recent gains off the lows of the pandemic. While we do not expect a complete collapse in the pace of recalled workers (that may be an October and ... READ MORE >
August U.S. employment report: Strong hiring continues for fourth month
The return of workers to their jobs continued at a strong pace in August, with 1.371 million jobs added, including 238,000 temporary census workers. Excluding those census workers, who will be laid off at the end of September, the pace of hiring slowed to 1.1 million from 1.7 million in July. It is the ... READ MORE >
US July employment report preview: Stagnation
We anticipate that there will be no increase in total employment for July following two strong months of worker recalls when the U.S. employment data is released on Friday. This is mostly because of the intensification of the pandemic across the South, Southwest and California, as well as the ... READ MORE >
U.S. jobs report: Will June data already be out of date by the time it’s published?
We expect an increase of 3.1 million in total employment, led by workers who have been called back to their jobs, and a decrease to 12.2% in the unemployment rate when the jobs data for June is released on Thursday. But those figures should be looked at with a skeptical eye. Pandemic economics is now ... READ MORE >
U.S. April employment report: Prelude to a tragedy
The weight of this sad time we must obey, Speak what we feel, not what we ought to say. The oldest hath borne most: We that are young. Shall never see so much, nor live so long. William Shakespeare, “King Lear” We must remember the gravity of this sad day. Like William Shakespeare, who wrote “King ... READ MORE >
U.S. economy shed 701,000 jobs in March as shutdown takes hold
Following 113 straight months of job gains, the U.S. economy shed 701,000 jobs in March, providing a glimpse of things to come. The internal dynamics inside the report are a sober, clear-eyed precursor to what is going to be the largest bloodletting in the labor market since the 1929-1933 period of the ... READ MORE >
Jobs report preview: Last estimate before coronavirus impact
We expect an increase of 178,000 in total employment when the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases its first estimate of nonfarm payrolls on Friday, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 3.6%. Before the global public health emergency, hiring was slowing in transport, trade, manufacturing and ... READ MORE >
Jobs report: Strong growth amid slow wage gains, but uncertainties remain
The economy began the year with a strong pace of growth in the labor market, generating 225,000 jobs, point to modest activity ahead. That activity will be affected by the ability of the U.S. consumer to offset weak domestic manufacturing and the potential ripple effects of the coronavirus outbreak in ... READ MORE >