Hiring in the American economy declined by 140,000 in December as firms felt the effects of the six-month delay by the political sector in providing fiscal aid to the public, and the subsequent pulling back in economic activity. … READ MORE >
jobs report
December payroll preview: State and local government employment to continue contracting
We anticipate a decline of 75,000 jobs in total U.S. employment and an increase in the unemployment rate to 6.8% when the jobs report is released Friday. … READ MORE >
U.S. November employment report: Winter is coming
The recall of workers and job creation continued to slow in November to 245,000, while the unemployment rate declined to 6.7%, just ahead of what is likely to be a pandemic-induced drag on domestic labor market conditions over the next few months. … READ MORE >
November jobs preview: Employment-to-population ratio and the likelihood of a double-dip recession
We expect that improvement in the labor market will continue to slow to near 370,000 on the month with the unemployment rate falling to 6.8% when the Labor Department releases its jobs data on Friday. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Estimating unemployment during the pandemic
By adjusting the number of unemployed for the number of people who are not in the labor force but want a job, and the pandemic unemployment rate jumps to 8.0%, our analysis shows. … READ MORE >
U.S. employment report: Unequivocally strong numbers
The end of the 2020 census and the loss of its workers masked a robust 906,000 increase in private-sector payrolls in October that was far stronger than the implied figure of 638,000 would suggest. … READ MORE >
U.S. employment report preview: Sustained improvement, downside risk
We expect total employment to increase by 580,000 and the unemployment rate to fall to 7.6% when the October estimate of employment conditions in the United States is released on Friday. … READ MORE >
September jobs report preview: Expect the recall of workers to slow
We expect a net gain of 850,000 in total employment when the jobs report for September is released on Friday. That figure, though, represents a slowing of recent gains off the lows of the pandemic. … READ MORE >
August U.S. employment report: Strong hiring continues for fourth month
The return of workers to their jobs continued at a strong pace in August, with 1.371 million jobs added, including 238,000 temporary census workers. … READ MORE >
US July employment report preview: Stagnation
We anticipate that there will be no increase in total employment for July following two strong months of worker recalls when the U.S. employment data is released on Friday. … READ MORE >