We expect that improvement in the labor market will continue to slow to near 370,000 on the month with the unemployment rate falling to 6.8% when the Labor Department releases its jobs data on Friday. … READ MORE >
jobs report
CHART OF THE DAY: Estimating unemployment during the pandemic
By adjusting the number of unemployed for the number of people who are not in the labor force but want a job, and the pandemic unemployment rate jumps to 8.0%, our analysis shows. … READ MORE >
U.S. employment report: Unequivocally strong numbers
The end of the 2020 census and the loss of its workers masked a robust 906,000 increase in private-sector payrolls in October that was far stronger than the implied figure of 638,000 would suggest. … READ MORE >
U.S. employment report preview: Sustained improvement, downside risk
We expect total employment to increase by 580,000 and the unemployment rate to fall to 7.6% when the October estimate of employment conditions in the United States is released on Friday. … READ MORE >
September jobs report preview: Expect the recall of workers to slow
We expect a net gain of 850,000 in total employment when the jobs report for September is released on Friday. That figure, though, represents a slowing of recent gains off the lows of the pandemic. … READ MORE >
August U.S. employment report: Strong hiring continues for fourth month
The return of workers to their jobs continued at a strong pace in August, with 1.371 million jobs added, including 238,000 temporary census workers. … READ MORE >
US July employment report preview: Stagnation
We anticipate that there will be no increase in total employment for July following two strong months of worker recalls when the U.S. employment data is released on Friday. … READ MORE >
U.S. jobs report: Will June data already be out of date by the time it’s published?
We expect an increase of 3.1 million in total employment, led by workers who have been called back to their jobs, and a decrease to 12.2% in the unemployment rate when the jobs data for June is released on Thursday. … READ MORE >
U.S. April employment report: Prelude to a tragedy
It is difficult to ponder the significance of 20.5 million jobs lost and a 14.7% unemployment rate – the grim toll of the jobs data released on Friday — among the casualties and death that surround us. … READ MORE >
U.S. economy shed 701,000 jobs in March as shutdown takes hold
Following 113 straight months of job gains, the U.S. economy shed 701,000 jobs in March, providing a glimpse of things to come. The internal dynamics inside the report are a sober, clear-eyed precursor to what is going to be the largest bloodletting in the labor market since the 1929-1933 period of the Great Depression. … READ MORE >