An “uncertainty tax” linked to the economic realities of Brexit developments in the U.K. and trade tensions in the United States is damping overall economic activity in both economies. These issues, which are strongly linked to the breakout of economic populism around the world, are creating conditions ... READ MORE >
Joe Brusuelas
FOMC preview: Prudent pause and revising economic outlook downward
The dovish turn at the Federal Open Market Committee’s January meeting was predicated on an interesting juxtaposition: the committee telegraphed a prudent pause in its policy normalization campaign, while not substantially revising down its forward-looking economic outlook. We expect the March meeting to ... READ MORE >
Miles to go before I sleep: Brexit moves toward extend and pretend
The U.K. Parliament this week has moved toward our base case for the Brexit process, approaching a short-term extension that will result in a modified deal for Britain to exit the European Union some time before June 30. However, in the words of the poet Robert Frost, “The woods are lovely, dark and deep, ... READ MORE >