While we have remained cautious, now there is no mistake: A trade spat initiated by the United States last year with the imposition of tariffs on steel and aluminum imports has clearly escalated into a full-blown trade war. … READ MORE >
Joe Brusuelas
A pivot point for agriculture : Can agritech save farming?
The U.S. agriculture sector has been hard hit in recent years due to changing global demand and the onset of the Trump administration’s trade conflicts. Growth of real net farm income in 2019 dollars has been negative in nine of the past 19 years. Here’s a look at some of the actions we could take to reverse these trends. … READ MORE >
RSM Brexit Stress Index shows increase in financial market stress
The RSM Brexit Stress Index finished the week at 0.34, up from last week’s close at 0.02. Although remaining within a range of normality in terms of asset price movement and volatility, financial market stress is nevertheless inching higher again. … READ MORE >
Fed policy bumps up against muted inflation expectations: Data point to ‘lower for longer’ inflation
The Federal Reserve’s April policy meeting featured an in-depth discussion around risks to the economic outlook from falling inflation and current inflation expectations. The central bank’s current policy framework has set a 2 percent inflation target. Meanwhile, core inflation has eased to 1.6 percent, well below the Fed’s target, while … … READ MORE >
ADP private sector payroll estimate: Strong gains in middle market hiring
The ADP April estimate of private sector hiring released on Wednesday pointed to strong hiring by middle market businesses amid robust service sector and goods producing sector hiring. … READ MORE >
First quarter GDP will show moderate growth, but with an asterisk
U.S. first quarter gross domestic product likely expanded 2.6 percent, a generous pace of growth given significant headwinds from a slowing global economy, the lengthy government shutdown and a rough winter. But put an asterisk next to it, as the first-quarter expansion was driven by unsustainable inventory accumulation, a temporary … … READ MORE >
RSM launches Canadian edition of The Real Economy
In the inaugural issue of The Real Economy, Canada, RSM Chief Economist Joseph Brusuelas closely examines the primary drivers of growth for 2019, which include modest consumer spending, government expenditures, and an economy bolstered by an increase in business investment. … READ MORE >
RSM Brexit Stress Index: Decline implies conditions support improved UK economic growth
The RSM Brexit Stress Index declined to -0.08 from 0.41 the prior week due to the extension to Oct. 31 of the UK’s potential exit from the European Union. The index has made a two-standard-deviation move since early December, 2018; the trend implies broader financial conditions supportive of growth sorely needed in the UK economy, which has been stuck near a one-percent growth trend. … READ MORE >
RSM’s Joe Brusuelas talks GDP and economic outlook with Bloomberg radio
Despite a slowing economy, RSM Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas tells Bloomberg radio that “a recession is just not in the cards this year” unless the administration or the Federal Reserve “makes a major mistake.” … READ MORE >
RSM Brexit Stress Index eases on promise of soft departure from EU
Probability for a hard Brexit is falling, data from RSM’s proprietary Brexit Stress Index shows. The index eased to .41 from .71. … READ MORE >