A sustained hard closure of the U.S. border with Mexico would trigger a recession in both the United States and Mexico within six months. The automotive sector, in particular, is vulnerable. … READ MORE >
Joe Brusuelas
March jobs report: Payrolls rise, but wage growth cools
The U.S. March employment report should allay fears of a 2019 recession as the unemployment rate held at 3.8 percent and the economy generated 196,000 new jobs on top of an upward revision of 13,000 to the February estimate, bringing the total change in employment to 209,000. … READ MORE >
Section 232 automotive tariffs and their impact on Europe
Under section 232 of The Trade Expansion Act of 1962, The Trump administration has the authority to impose tariffs on automotive imports from the UK, the European Union and Asia. RSM’s chief economist discusses their impact on the European economy. … READ MORE >
Brexit and the middle market: What comes next?
RSM Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas gives an update on the outlook for middle market companies following the UK’s planned departure from the European Union. … READ MORE >
US employment report preview: modest rebound as risks to outlook rise
We expect this Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report to show 155,000 jobs were added in March with the unemployment rate holding steady at 3.8 percent. Slowing economic activity during the first quarter places downside risk on our top-line employment growth forecast. … READ MORE >
U.S. February retail sales point to weak Q1 household spending
Soft top-line and underlying core retail sales in February point to persistent weak household spending in the first quarter of the year. … READ MORE >
RSM Brexit Stress Index awaits parliament’s next move as EU mulls ‘Brextra Time’
The RSM Brexit Stress index remained essentially unchanged falling from .74 standard deviations above neutral to .72 for the week ending March 29. The primary catalysts for the relatively unchanged score were narrowing corporate bond spreads, lower volatility of British Sterling in foreign exchange markets and improvement in the FTSE … … READ MORE >
RSM US Middle Market Business Index tumbles in Q1–Joe Brusuelas decodes the drop
Joe Brusuelas explains what’s behind the drop in the first quarter RSM US Middle Market Business Index and how middle market businesses can prepare for an uncertain economic outlook. … READ MORE >
The Fed: Prudent, patient and setting up for a heavy policy lift
The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee on Wednesday signaled that it in all likelihood has ended its policy normalization campaign. The FOMC is attempting to engineer a soft landing for an economy that rapidly decelerated during the first quarter of the year amid global economic headwinds, volatility across asset space and policy risks associated with U.S. trade policy. … READ MORE >
Uncertainty tax: the catalyst for underperformance in Anglo-American economies
An “uncertainty tax” linked to the economic realities of Brexit developments in the U.K. and trade tensions in the United States is damping overall economic activity in both economies. These issues, which are strongly linked to the breakout of economic populism around the world, are creating conditions for slower growth and recession if the current protectionist actions are sustained. … READ MORE >