The U.S. economy added only 75,000 jobs in May. Does that lend credence to the likelihood that the Federal Reserve is preparing for a rate in the near term? RSM US Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas weighs in on this podcast with the Wall Street Journal’s Charlie Turner on Friday, June 7. … READ MORE >
Joe Brusuelas
RSM Brexit Stress Index eases amid May’s departure
The RSM Brexit Stress Index closed at 0.42 on Friday, moderating from 0.60 at the end of last week, as Prime Minister Theresa May officially exits her post at Tory leader. … READ MORE >
Jobs report clunker puts June rate cut on the table
An interest rate cut at the June 19 Federal Reserve meeting is now on the table as firms pulled back significantly on hiring in May. The weak hiring report is likely due to the uncertainty tax linked to trade policy out of the White House that has been placed on the economy. … READ MORE >
What constitutes a trade war? You’re looking at it
While we have remained cautious, now there is no mistake: A trade spat initiated by the United States last year with the imposition of tariffs on steel and aluminum imports has clearly escalated into a full-blown trade war. … READ MORE >
A pivot point for agriculture : Can agritech save farming?
The U.S. agriculture sector has been hard hit in recent years due to changing global demand and the onset of the Trump administration’s trade conflicts. Growth of real net farm income in 2019 dollars has been negative in nine of the past 19 years. Here’s a look at some of the actions we could take to reverse these trends. … READ MORE >
RSM Brexit Stress Index shows increase in financial market stress
The RSM Brexit Stress Index finished the week at 0.34, up from last week’s close at 0.02. Although remaining within a range of normality in terms of asset price movement and volatility, financial market stress is nevertheless inching higher again. … READ MORE >
Fed policy bumps up against muted inflation expectations: Data point to ‘lower for longer’ inflation
The Federal Reserve’s April policy meeting featured an in-depth discussion around risks to the economic outlook from falling inflation and current inflation expectations. The central bank’s current policy framework has set a 2 percent inflation target. Meanwhile, core inflation has eased to 1.6 percent, well below the Fed’s target, while … … READ MORE >
ADP private sector payroll estimate: Strong gains in middle market hiring
The ADP April estimate of private sector hiring released on Wednesday pointed to strong hiring by middle market businesses amid robust service sector and goods producing sector hiring. … READ MORE >
First quarter GDP will show moderate growth, but with an asterisk
U.S. first quarter gross domestic product likely expanded 2.6 percent, a generous pace of growth given significant headwinds from a slowing global economy, the lengthy government shutdown and a rough winter. But put an asterisk next to it, as the first-quarter expansion was driven by unsustainable inventory accumulation, a temporary … … READ MORE >
RSM launches Canadian edition of The Real Economy
In the inaugural issue of The Real Economy, Canada, RSM Chief Economist Joseph Brusuelas closely examines the primary drivers of growth for 2019, which include modest consumer spending, government expenditures, and an economy bolstered by an increase in business investment. … READ MORE >