RSM recently entered into a strategic partnership with the UCLA Anderson Forecast, a longstanding and well-respected barometer of the economies of California and the United States issued by UCLA Anderson School of Management, based on GDP data and other economic indicators. … READ MORE >
Joe Brusuelas
The RSM Brexit Stress Index: A respite, but for how long?
The RSM Brexit Stress Index closed lower for the third week in a row, as the British economy contends with an uncertain political future nearly a month after Prime Minister Theresa May’s announced resignation. The composite index—which measures economic stress surrounding Britain’s pending departure from the European Union—moderated to 0.23 on Friday from 0.24 a week earlier. … READ MORE >
Wage growth and the end of business cycles
“It’s likely that wage growth has peaked in the current business cycle,” writes RSM Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas, “which strongly suggests that the U.S. economy has entered the latter stages of the economic expansion.” … READ MORE >
FOMC preview: Fed positions for rate cut later this year
The Federal Reserve is on the precipice of a major shift in policy as the economy, hiring and wages slow amid a backdrop of muted inflation. … READ MORE >
The RSM Brexit Stress Index–Assessing the political damage
The RSM Brexit Stress Index closed lower for the second week in a row, following the resignation of Prime Minster Theresa May last month and an uncertain political future for the U.K. The composite index—which measures economic uncertainty surrounding Britain’s departure from the European Union—moderated to 0.24 on Friday from 0.40 at the end of last week … READ MORE >
Will May’s slow jobs growth spell a Fed interest rate cut? Joe Brusuelas offers insight in a WSJ podcast
The U.S. economy added only 75,000 jobs in May. Does that lend credence to the likelihood that the Federal Reserve is preparing for a rate in the near term? RSM US Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas weighs in on this podcast with the Wall Street Journal’s Charlie Turner on Friday, June 7. … READ MORE >
RSM Brexit Stress Index eases amid May’s departure
The RSM Brexit Stress Index closed at 0.42 on Friday, moderating from 0.60 at the end of last week, as Prime Minister Theresa May officially exits her post at Tory leader. … READ MORE >
Jobs report clunker puts June rate cut on the table
An interest rate cut at the June 19 Federal Reserve meeting is now on the table as firms pulled back significantly on hiring in May. The weak hiring report is likely due to the uncertainty tax linked to trade policy out of the White House that has been placed on the economy. … READ MORE >
What constitutes a trade war? You’re looking at it
While we have remained cautious, now there is no mistake: A trade spat initiated by the United States last year with the imposition of tariffs on steel and aluminum imports has clearly escalated into a full-blown trade war. … READ MORE >
A pivot point for agriculture : Can agritech save farming?
The U.S. agriculture sector has been hard hit in recent years due to changing global demand and the onset of the Trump administration’s trade conflicts. Growth of real net farm income in 2019 dollars has been negative in nine of the past 19 years. Here’s a look at some of the actions we could take to reverse these trends. … READ MORE >