An interest rate cut at the June 19 Federal Reserve meeting is now on the table as firms pulled back significantly on hiring in May. The weak hiring report is likely due to the uncertainty tax linked to trade policy out of the White House that has been placed on the economy. While topline hiring showed ... READ MORE >
Joe Brusuelas
What constitutes a trade war? You’re looking at it
Many who have watched the growing trade dispute between the United States and China, the world's largest trading partners, have been fast and loose with terminology since tensions began to heat up in early 2018. While we have remained cautious, now there is no mistake: A trade spat initiated by the ... READ MORE >
A pivot point for agriculture : Can agritech save farming?
The U.S. agriculture sector has been hard hit in recent years due to changing global demand and the onset of the Trump administration’s trade conflicts. Growth of real net farm income in 2019 dollars has been negative in nine of the past 19 years. Since 2011 the major agriculture states in the Midwest ... READ MORE >
RSM Brexit Stress Index shows increase in financial market stress
The RSM Brexit Stress Index finished the week at 0.34, up from last week’s close at 0.02. Although remaining within a range of normality in terms of asset price movement and volatility, financial market stress is nevertheless inching higher again. Until three weeks ago, the index, which measures UK ... READ MORE >
Fed policy bumps up against muted inflation expectations: Data point to ‘lower for longer’ inflation
The Federal Reserve’s April policy meeting featured an in-depth discussion around risks to the economic outlook from falling inflation and current inflation expectations. The central bank’s current policy framework has set a 2 percent inflation target. Meanwhile, core inflation has eased to 1.6 percent, ... READ MORE >
ADP private sector payroll estimate: Strong gains in middle market hiring
The ADP April estimate of private sector hiring released on Wednesday pointed to strong hiring by middle market businesses amid robust service sector and goods producing sector hiring. The middle market accounted for 52.7 percent, or 145,000 out of 275,000, of the total change in private sector ... READ MORE >
First quarter GDP will show moderate growth, but with an asterisk
U.S. first quarter gross domestic product likely expanded 2.6 percent, a generous pace of growth given significant headwinds from a slowing global economy, the lengthy government shutdown and a rough winter. But put an asterisk next to it, as the first-quarter expansion was driven by unsustainable ... READ MORE >
RSM launches Canadian edition of The Real Economy
The Real Economy has expanded its reach with a new Canadian edition. In the inaugural issue of The Real Economy, Canada, RSM Chief Economist Joseph Brusuelas closely examines the primary drivers of growth for 2019, which include modest consumer spending, government expenditures, and an economy ... READ MORE >
RSM Brexit Stress Index: Decline implies conditions support improved UK economic growth
The RSM Brexit Stress Index declined to -0.08 from 0.41 the prior week due to the extension to Oct. 31 of the UK’s potential exit from the European Union. The index has made a two-standard-deviation move since early December, 2018; the trend implies broader financial conditions supportive of growth sorely ... READ MORE >
RSM’s Joe Brusuelas talks GDP and economic outlook with Bloomberg radio
Despite a slowing economy, RSM Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas tells Bloomberg radio that "a recession is just not in the cards this year" unless the administration or the Federal Reserve "makes a major mistake." Brusuelas was responding to questions about a March 22 inversion of the yield curve, a ... READ MORE >