Probability for a hard Brexit is falling, data from RSM’s proprietary Brexit Stress Index shows. The index eased to .41 from a high of .77 on March 8. While the opposition Labour party put out a statement late Friday saying talks have stalled, the RSM Brexit Stress Index nevertheless eased somewhat ... READ MORE >
Joe Brusuelas
Economic risk tied to closing the U.S.-Mexico border
A sustained hard closure of the U.S. border with Mexico would trigger a recession in both the United States and Mexico within six months. It’s important to note that the auto industry directly employs one million individuals and accounted for 0.7 percent of the real value added to the U.S. economy in ... READ MORE >
March jobs report: Payrolls rise, but wage growth cools
The U.S. March employment report should allay fears of a 2019 recession as the unemployment rate held at 3.8 percent and the economy generated 196,000 new jobs on top of an upward revision of 13,000 to the February estimate, bringing the total change in employment to 209,000. While, the economy is ... READ MORE >
Section 232 automotive tariffs and their impact on Europe
Under section 232 of The Trade Expansion Act of 1962, The Trump administration has the authority to impose tariffs on automotive imports from the UK, the European Union and Asia. On Feb. 17, the Commerce Department delivered a report on whether the import of these products poses a threat to U.S. ... READ MORE >
Brexit and the middle market: What comes next?
From stress testing balance sheets to considering alternative supply chains, RSM Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas gives an update on the outlook for middle market companies following the UK's planned departure from the European Union. He is interviewed by Simon Hart, Lead Brexit Partner, RSM UK. ... READ MORE >
US employment report preview: modest rebound as risks to outlook rise
We expect this Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report to show 155,000 jobs were added in March with the unemployment rate holding steady at 3.8 percent. Slowing economic activity during the first quarter places downside risk on our top-line employment growth forecast. Even so, any increase at or above our ... READ MORE >
U.S. February retail sales point to weak Q1 household spending
Soft top-line and underlying core retail sales in February point to persistent weak household spending in the first quarter of the year. While retail sales make up roughly 23 percent of household spending, we are certain that if personal spending in February and March does not surge at least 0.5 percent ... READ MORE >
RSM Brexit Stress Index awaits parliament’s next move as EU mulls ‘Brextra Time’
The RSM Brexit Stress index remained essentially unchanged falling from .74 standard deviations above neutral to .72 for the week ending March 29. The primary catalysts for the relatively unchanged score were narrowing corporate bond spreads, lower volatility of British Sterling in foreign exchange ... READ MORE >
RSM US Middle Market Business Index tumbles in Q1–Joe Brusuelas decodes the drop
https://youtu.be/6crNGIjhCT8 The RSM US Middle Market Business Index tumbled to 124.1 from 132 in the first quarter. Declines in current conditions, expected outlook for the economy and capital expenditures should be interpreted by policymakers as a signal that the “uncertainty tax” generated by the ... READ MORE >
The Fed: Prudent, patient and setting up for a heavy policy lift
The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee on Wednesday signaled that it in all likelihood has ended its policy normalization campaign. The FOMC is attempting to engineer a soft landing for an economy that rapidly decelerated during the first quarter of 2019 amid global economic headwinds, volatility ... READ MORE >