The OMC held its policy rate in a range between 4.25% and 4.5% on Wednesday as it slightly opened the door to a rate cut this fall., … READ MORE >
Joe Brusuelas
GDP grew by 3% in second quarter, but underlying data suggests a rate closer to 1%
Once one excludes the more volatile trade and inventory data, growth advanced at a much softer pace of 1.2% implied by final sales to private domestic purchasers. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Spending slowing as consumers navigate uncertainty
We expect a 0.3% increase in personal spending in June as consumers increase outlays following the 0.1% decline in May. … READ MORE >
Tariff pause buoys trade data amid warning signs in labor and spending
A sharp narrowing of the goods trade deficit in June will most likely provide a boost to second-quarter gross domestic product, but the headline number masks underlying economic fragility. Labor market activity slowed notably during the month, and signs of weakening consumer demand suggest more turbulence ahead, even as confidence … … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Private domestic demand excluding trade and inventories will point the way on GDP
U.S. growth in the second quarter most likely advanced at a 2.5% rate following the 0.5% contraction in the first quarter of the year. … READ MORE >
Inventories in an age of uncertainty
Inventory expansion continued to moderate in May after peaking earlier in the year as firms pulled forward economic activity to avoid tariffs. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Japanese bond holdings and global yields
The chance that Japan’s long-dominant Liberal Democratic Party may lose its majority in the upper house of parliament has created a risk of higher bond yields not only in Japan but also globally. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Global yields on the rise
Expansionary fiscal policies in Germany and the U.S., as well as the prospect of greater government spending in Japan, have pushed long-dated yields higher in global fixed-income markets. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Threatened tariffs and market complacency
If one is wondering why investors have shrugged off tariff threats out of Washington, look no further than the United States’ five biggest trading partners excluding China. … READ MORE >
U.S. consumer price index creeps higher in June
Inflation has started a slow climb as signs of tariff-induced inflation are now evident within durable and nondurable imports. … READ MORE >