With the labor market at full employment and wages growing above inflation, the American service sector is likely to outperform heading into the critical holiday shopping season. … READ MORE >
Joseph Brusuelas
Morning market minute: Return of the term premium on Treasury notes
While the term premium is modest, given the changing policy matrix amid a strong economy, we expect yields in the new year to move to 4.5% with risk of a move to 5% or higher. … READ MORE >
Servicing external debt in a strong-dollar environment
The dollar’s strength is coming at price for emerging markets, which must pay more to service their external debt. … READ MORE >
Global currency reserves: BRIC economies not supplanting U.S. any time soon
O about $12.5 trillion in total global currency reserves, China accounts for but a fraction with $245 billion. The United States, by contrast, accounts for $6.67 trillion. … READ MORE >
Inflation proving stubborn as major policy changes await
given the looming fiscal and trade policy changes, it is growing more likely that the central bank will pause its rate-cutting campaign to ascertain their impact on the economy. … READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims remain stable at 213,000
First-time jobless claims remained remarkably stable at 213,000 as continuing claims increased to 1.9 million for the week ending Nov. 23. … READ MORE >
Trump tariff losers index: Manufacturing, metals, petroleum and many more
The Trump Tariff Losers Index captured the supply chain stress during the pandemic era and is poised to turn upward should the threats of new tariffs become policy action. … READ MORE >
China’s economic challenge: Elevated external debt and its dirty float
A Chinese economy caught in a debt and deleveraging trap is likely to face the additional strain of a sharp increase in tariffs on goods sold into the U.S. … READ MORE >
Post-election outlook: A webinar from RSM US and U.S. Chamber of Commerce
Join RSM US Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas and U.S. Chamber of Commerce Executive Vice President Neil Bradley as they discuss the economic outlook for this new landscape and what middle market companies should anticipate. … READ MORE >
Capital flows into the U.S. to challenge global economy
The dollar is set to soar in the next year amid an expansionary fiscal policy and a new tariff regime, leading to more capital inflows to the United States. … READ MORE >