The U.S. economy continues to show strength, with full employment, price stability and strong productivity gains. … READ MORE >
Joseph Brusuelas
Financial conditions improve in Canada and U.S., setting stage for growth
Financial conditions continue to improve both in Canada as well as the United States, signaling stability in markets and setting the groundwork for economic growth. … READ MORE >
A nascent dollar bloc: Re-globalization amid U.S.-Chinese tensions
We see a nascent dollar trading bloc forming out of need to protect essential industries. … READ MORE >
October jobs report will be distorted by hurricane and strike
We expect a top-line gain in total employment of roughly 120,000 jobs, which is approximately 80,000 below what our model would otherwise imply. … READ MORE >
American outperformance in the global economy
The U.S. economy is outperforming in growth and employment, and in controlling inflation, without causing the economy to fall into an extended period of slow growth. It’s a remarkable policy achievement. … READ MORE >
U.S. CPI: Further evidence of disinflation supports another rate cut
We expect the Fed to keep its eyes on preserving full employment amid general price stability, which points to a further reduction in interest rates throughout the remainder of the year … READ MORE >
When money has a price: How the higher cost of capital is affecting America’s real economy
Business models built around zero interest rates—and services firms with exposure to those businesses—are adapting to the return of a positive term premium in the price of money. … READ MORE >
October surprise: U.S. economy added 254,000 jobs in September as unemployment fell to 4.1%
The jobs data released Friday strongly suggests that the Fed will cut by 25 basis points on Nov. 7 at its next meeting. … READ MORE >
U.S. port strike will have a modest impact on GDP
The strike by port workers along the East and Gulf coasts of the United States will provide a modest hit to GDP of a little more than 0.1 percentage points per week, or roughly $4.3 billion in lost exports and imports. … READ MORE >
American outperformance in the post-pandemic global economy
The U.S. economy is outperforming in growth and employment, and in controlling inflation, without causing the economy to fall into an extended period of slow growth or outright recession. … READ MORE >