Disinflation across the economy driven by easing goods and some service costs is good news for beleaguered households that have had to bear the burden of both inflation and interest rate shocks in recent years. The 3% year-ago increase in the consumer price index reported by the Labor ... READ MORE >
Joseph Brusuelas
U.S. employment report: Strong gains continue in June
A remarkable run of monthly job gains continued in June as the American economy generated 209,000 new jobs and the unemployment rate fell to 3.6%. For the year, 1.67 million new jobs have been created, an average of more than 278,000 jobs each month, according to data released by the Bureau ... READ MORE >
June jobs preview: Low unemployment shows a rapidly evolving labor market
The national unemployment rate has been 4% or lower since December 2021. Robust job gains have averaged 314,000 this year through May, and gross domestic product grew by a strong 2% in the first quarter—a reflection of the American economy’s underlying resilience. When the June employment ... READ MORE >
U.S. economy was a lot stronger in first quarter, final GDP estimate shows
The U.S. economy was stronger in the first quarter than previous estimates indicated, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported on Thursday. The third and final estimate of gross domestic product showed a drastic upward revision to a 2.0% gain from 1.3% on a quarterly and annualized basis. The increase ... READ MORE >
RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index: Slowdown continues
Manufacturers across much of the United States reported slowing activity in June, according to surveys by regional Federal Reserve banks. The RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index remained 1.7 standard deviations below normal, the 14th consecutive month of negative values. Our index is based ... READ MORE >
Is the economy headed for a recession? Jobless claims are saying yes.
The United States economy appears to be approaching a recession, as recent jobless claims data—a reliable precursor to the end of a business cycle—portends. Despite the labor market's resilience and persistently low claims compared to historical norms, the steady increases in claims since ... READ MORE >
Midyear global outlook: Slowdown followed by recovery as India leads the way
The global economy is in a precarious state these days, with the resilience that was exhibited earlier this year expected to fade. While India and the United States remain areas of growth, the European Union appears to have slipped into recession and China is not experiencing the strong ... READ MORE >
Fed pauses rate hikes while signaling a tightening bias
The Federal Open Market Committee on Wednesday kept its policy rate in a range between 5% and 5.25% while signaling that it will most likely hike the federal funds rate by 25 basis points at least twice before the end of the year. This implies a possible policy peak of 5.75% later this year. ... READ MORE >
Inflation relief in the pipeline as food, gas and service prices ease
Top-line U.S. inflation is moving back toward levels where it is appropriate for the Federal Reserve to pause in its efforts to restore price stability. With underlying inflation hovering around 3% and 4%, the Fed is well positioned to keep its policy rate steady this week with the confidence ... READ MORE >
Interest rate outlook: Debt ceiling standoff raised the cost of doing business
One cost of the debt ceiling crisis that is lost among most political actors and the public is that the U.S. Treasury will need to refill its coffers. That need to sell debt—$1.1 trillion of it—along with a strong probability of another Federal Reserve rate hike or two during the third ... READ MORE >