Personal income increased by 0.3%, personal spending by 0.4% and real spending by 0.3% as households used robust gains in disposable income. … READ MORE >
Joseph Brusuelas
Morning market minute: The strange logic of economic populism and government shutdowns
The prospect of a government shutdown and another unnecessary standoff in Congress over raising the nation’s debt ceiling are providing a lump of coal in Americans’ holiday stockings. … READ MORE >
Fed cuts rates as it signals a prudent pause to assess policy uncertainty
The Federal Reserve reduced its policy rate by 25 basis points to a range between 4.25% and 4.5% at its meeting on Wednesday. … READ MORE >
Morning market minute: What the Treasury yield curve is saying about the economy
Normally, yields would be expected to fall at a time when the Fed is cutting rates. But uncertainty over the economy and the probability of inflation’s decline stalling at 2.6% to 2.8% have helped push up yields. … READ MORE >
Inflation risk premium suggests higher yields ahead
Should the inflation risk premium continue to rise, investors should anticipate that longer-term Treasury yields will move higher in tandem. … READ MORE >
Morning market minute: The Fed’s terminal rate estimate needs to be lifted
We expect that the Federal Reserve will lift its estimate of the terminal rate to 3% this week. … READ MORE >
FOMC preview: A rate cut, followed by a prudent pause
We expect the Federal Reserve to reduce its policy rate by 25 basis points to a range between 4.25% and 4.5% at the Federal Open Market Committee’s meeting on Dec. 18. … READ MORE >
Inflation ticks up amid seasonal factors and strong growth
November marked the first month since April when overall CPI inflation grew by 0.3% monthly, or 3.7% annualized, well above the Fed’s 2% target. … READ MORE >
Morning market minute: Firms to pull forward durable goods orders to avoid tariffs
Firms appear to be acting rationally to avoid rising import taxes in the new year. … READ MORE >
Hiring rebounded in November following weather-distorted October report
After the distortions In October’s jobs report caused by two hurricanes, the American labor market bounced back in November with the creation of 227,000 jobs. … READ MORE >