Inflation dynamics to close out last year strongly point to a near-term return to the Federal Reserve’s 2% inflation target amid a solid labor market, strong spending and real income gains. … READ MORE >
Joseph Brusuelas
U.S. economy booms at a 3.3% pace in the fourth quarter
The U.S. economy last year expanded by a robust, above-trend pace of 3.1% and a fourth quarter pace on a seasonally adjusted rate of 3.3%. … READ MORE >
A rail merger and the evolution of North America’s supply chain
The merger of two major North American railroads will create a rail network that reaches both coasts and runs through the middle of the continent. … READ MORE >
Friend-shoring and a new era of U.S. trade
Fragmentation of economic, financial and trade relationships is now the norm as trading and security blocs continue to form around the world. … READ MORE >
How attacks on ships in the Red Sea are affecting trade
Trade through the Red Sea accounts for 15% of total global sea trade, including vital supplies of grains, seaborn liquid natural gas and oil. … READ MORE >
The price of eggs and public sentiment
While inflation continues to recede, higher prices continue to affect household finances, causing the public to evaluate the economy as sour. … READ MORE >
December CPI: Sticky service and housing prices illustrate the difficult last mile in inflation fight
Despite a three-month annualized top-line inflation pace of 1.8% and a six-month rate of 3.3%, prices in the service sector, which comprises 62% of the overall index, increased by 5% on a year-ago basis. … READ MORE >
Rate normalization and the return of risk
Conditions are ripe for the yield curve to continue to normalize as the long end moves to a range between 4% and 4.25%. … READ MORE >
U.S. income and spending see strong gains as year nears an end
November had a 0.4% increase in nominal income and spending, while inflation-adjusted spending advanced at a 0.3% pace, according to Commerce Department data released on Friday. … READ MORE >
Fed signals end of rate hikes and projects cuts in 2024
The Federal Reserve signaled at its meeting on Wednesday that it is done raising its policy rate and is poised to reduce it by 75 basis points next year, with more cuts after that. … READ MORE >