Despite the labor market’s resilience and persistently low claims compared to historical norms, the steady increases in claims since late last year are ringing alarm bells. … READ MORE >
Joseph Brusuelas
Midyear global outlook: Slowdown followed by recovery as India leads the way
The global economy is in a precarious state these days, with the resilience that was exhibited earlier this year expected to fade. … READ MORE >
Fed pauses rate hikes while signaling a tightening bias
The Federal Open Market Committee on Wednesday kept its policy rate in a range between 5% and 5.25% while signaling that it will most likely hike the federal funds rate by 25 basis points at least twice before the end of the year. … READ MORE >
Inflation relief in the pipeline as food, gas and service prices ease
Top-line U.S. inflation is moving back toward levels where it is appropriate for the Federal Reserve to pause in its efforts to restore price stability. … READ MORE >
Interest rate outlook: Debt ceiling standoff raised the cost of doing business
The Treasury’s need to sell $1.1 trillion in debt along with a strong probability of another Federal Reserve rate hike or two will push interest rates higher, raising the cost of doing business. … READ MORE >
The wealth effect and the Great Resignation
As household balance sheets have ballooned for older workers, many have retired. The implications are only now beginning to be understood. … READ MORE >
Economy added 339,000 jobs in blowout May employment report
The unemployment rate increased to 3.7% as workers rejoined the labor force. … READ MORE >
RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index: Downturn continues
The combination of monetary policy tightening and geopolitical pressures on energy prices and demand has taken its toll on the U.S. manufacturing sector. … READ MORE >
The debt ceiling agreement and the financial health of the U.S.
The agreement’s impact on economic growth will most likely be negligible and will bring modest growth in overall spending over the next two years. … READ MORE >
Fitch puts U.S. on ratings watch negative
It is time for the Federal Reserve to act pre-emptively to ensure well-functioning financial markets and signal to global market participants that the bond rating on U.S. Treasuries will remain unchanged. … READ MORE >