This is the third of four articles examining monetary and fiscal policy and the Federal Reserve’s response to the most significant issues of today’s economy. The first article examines the Fed’s challenge in meeting its mandate for full employment. The second looks at the Fed’s other mandate, for price ... READ MORE >
Joseph Brusuelas
RSM US Supply Chain Index: The worst may have passed, but choppy waters remain
The strength of the supply chain in the United States showed significant improvement for a second straight month in December after reaching a two-decade low in October, according to the newest data from the RSM US Supply Chain Index. The index rose 24% on the month to 3.12 standard deviations below ... READ MORE >
RSM US Financial Conditions Index: A move toward normal
After nearly two years of extreme accommodation in the financial markets, the RSM US Financial Conditions index stands at 0.96 standard deviations above neutral—a decline from the elevated levels during the pandemic and a sign that markets are starting to price in more risk. The index’s more modest ... READ MORE >
Price stability now a paramount concern as inflation hits 7%
Price stability: Learn it, know it and love it because that is what the Federal Reserve will be talking about over the next two years as the central bank attempts to craft a soft landing following an increase in the Consumer Price Index to a 7% annual rate in December. The Consumer Price Index data ... READ MORE >
December jobs report preview: Expect the unemployment rate to fall to 4.1%
We expect a net gain in total employment of 475,000 jobs and a decline in the unemployment rate to 4.1% when the jobs report for December is published on Friday. Strong job creation in higher-paying jobs in goods production, construction, manufacturing, business services and the financial sector ... READ MORE >
Consumer confidence surveys reflect a bifurcation of the nation’s economy
Recent readings of consumer confidence are revealing an increasingly bifurcated economy as households continue to grapple with the pandemic. The economy can be divided into two camps, the surveys show: one of scarcity where prices are rising and employment remains a challenge, and one of abundance ... READ MORE >
Chart of the day: Supply chain issues ease as demand-pull inflation rises
Estimates of logistics data in the RSM US Supply Chain Index, as seen in the index’s Nowcast, point to improved conditions in the U.S. supply chain heading into the end of the year. The demand-pull inflation—rising pricing pressure spurred by a shortage of supplies—that has altered at the Federal ... READ MORE >
FOMC meeting: Setting the stage for three rate hikes in 2022
The Federal Reserve on Wednesday set the stage for multiple increases in the federal funds policy rate next year by accelerating the tapering of asset purchases to $30 billion per month, up from $15 billion. The tapering should be wrapped up by March. This provides increased flexibility for the ... READ MORE >
U.S. November retail sales: Consumer spending moderates
The American consumer has held up remarkably well during the recent surge in inflation. But that was not the case in November as the pace of spending moderated to an 0.3% increase, which is likely because of an adjustment to rising prices, according to government data released Wednesday. The October ... READ MORE >
U.S. Consumer Price Index: Inflation broadens out as shelter costs rise by 4.8%
November inflation data, rising by 6.8% on the year, offered no relief for American households as energy and transportation costs continued to drive prices higher. While there is some relief over the horizon on both fronts—falling oil and gasoline prices, as well as the return of North American ... READ MORE >