We have made the case over the past few months that resilience rather than recession is a more apt description of the American economy. The net change in employment in the April jobs report of 253,000 reported by the Labor Department on Friday reflects that resilience. In addition, the … … READ MORE >
Joseph Brusuelas
Fed hikes rate a quarter point while creating framework for a pause
The 25 basis-point increase was accompanied by changes in the Federal Open Market Committee’s statement that imply a possible pause at the Fed’s next meeting in June. … READ MORE >
RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index: Slowdown continues into April
Overall manufacturing activity remains at 1.85 standard deviations below normal, a level consistent with past recessions. … READ MORE >
U.S. growth slows to 1.1% as businesses pull back
Growth in the first quarter expanded at a 1.1% annualized pace and by 1.6% on a year-ago basis as a modest inventory correction and a large pullback in business investment offset the increase in household consumption. … READ MORE >
Growth, employment and identifying the end of a business cycle
The Federal Reserve’s rate hikes are starting to pull down growth just as a period of tighter lending will probably cool the economy further over the next few months. … READ MORE >
Why the dollar remains the world’s reserve currency, and will stay that way
We find the recent discussion around the end of the dollar dominance bereft of any linkage to the reality of international finance. … READ MORE >
March inflation data points to a Fed rate peak in May
The inflation outlook improved in March because of a mix of year-over-year base effects and a significant decline in energy prices, all of which caused the top-line reading to decline to 5% from 6% previously. … READ MORE >
After flush years, households show a reluctance to borrow
As flush households face the potential of an economic slowdown, they are reluctant to take on debt. Instead, households appear to prefer precautionary saving in contrast with overconsumption. … READ MORE >
Bank deposit carousel continues as investors search for yield
The large gap between money market funds and bank deposit rates as well as what the banks themselves can obtain risk free at the Fed’s repo facility implies that cash will continue to move into the short end of the curve. … READ MORE >
RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index: Slowdown continues
According to the RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index based on those surveys, manufacturing activity remains at 1.8 standard deviations below normal. … READ MORE >