Economic growth in the third quarter will capture the impact of the delta variant on the economy as disruptions to supply chains and rising inflation have dampened household consumption and fixed investment by businesses. We expect that U.S. gross domestic product in the third quarter will arrive at ... READ MORE >
Joseph Brusuelas
Inflation remains elevated as supply chain disruptions persist
Inflation continued to move at or near the top of its pandemic-induced pace in September with the overall Consumer Price Index increasing by 0.4% on the month and by 5.4% on an annual basis as supply chain disruptions fueled increases for the sixth consecutive month. Sectors that are sensitive to ... READ MORE >
Chart of the day: Commercial paper points to strong corporate recovery
Commercial paper issuance is strong and resembles the robust recovery in corporate activity that took place after the financial crisis. The level of commercial paper outstanding is mirroring the increase in economic activity that began in the fourth quarter of last year. Despite the recent ... READ MORE >
Chart of the day: The ‘real’ unemployment rate is 8.2%
The headline U3 unemployment rate of 4.8% for September is probably an undercount of the number of out-of-work people in the United States. Under the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ methodology, those who are out of work and no longer looking for a job are not counted as unemployed and are not included ... READ MORE >
How $15 an hour became the de-facto minimum wage
It is becoming abundantly clear that the minimum wage has gone the way of buggy whip and that a new de facto entry-level wage of $15 per hour is becoming the national standard in the private sector. The shock to the economy unleashed by the pandemic and the response by workers have radically ... READ MORE >
September U.S. jobs report: One-time factors dampen hiring as unemployment rate falls to 4.8%
Widespread disruption to supply chains, the impact of Hurricane Ida, modest delays in the reopening of schools and day care centers and seasonal noise in the employment data all combined to dampen hiring in September. The United States added 194,000 jobs on the month, the Labor Department reported ... READ MORE >
In a possible sign of things to come, looming debt-ceiling crisis induces a flight to cash
The front end of the Treasury curve is flashing red because of the possibility of another black swan event—the threat of default on Treasury securities on or around Oct. 18. Investors have begun dumping their safe-haven assets in favor of holding cash, causing interest rates on Treasury bills with ... READ MORE >
U.S. September jobs preview: Expect a modest gain amid special factors and seasonal adjustments
The U.S. September employment report will most likely feature a net gain in total employment of 375,000 and a decline in the unemployment rate to 5.1% when it is released on Friday. The report will most likely reflect a mix of constraints in hiring related to Hurricane Ida and the reopening of ... READ MORE >
RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index: An expansion moderated by supply chain and labor constraints
Manufacturing conditions in September remain far above recession levels, suggesting a positive outlook for the economic expansion. Yet surveys of manufacturers conducted by five of the regional Federal Reserve banks once more pointed to supply chain and labor issues and a reassessment of their ... READ MORE >
Modeling the shock to the economy from a debt-ceiling crisis
The inability of the political sector to reach an equitable compromise on lifting the U.S. debt ceiling will come into sharp focus over the next few days. The federal government will exhaust its funding on Thursday, but can temporarily remain in operation because of special measures taken by the ... READ MORE >