The rise of the delta variant in Asia combined with surging demand around the world have sent shipping costs higher, which will show up in higher costs of imported goods as supply chain problems persist. The Baltic Dry Index, a metric of shipping costs, has reached an 11-year high as the resurgence of ... READ MORE >
Joseph Brusuelas
July Consumer Price Index: Inflation moderates and likely posts cyclical peak at 5.4%
The five-month surge in inflation has most likely resulted in a cyclical peak, reaching 5.4% in July on the back of a 0.5% increase on the month. The core Consumer Price Index excluding the more volatile food and energy components increased by 0.3% on the month and by 4.3% on a year-ago basis, ... READ MORE >
Inflation and small firms: The restaurant squeeze is on
The recent surge in inflation is now a significant issue for smaller firms, and nowhere is this more evident than in the restaurant industry. While large firms can hedge volatility and medium-size firms can increase efficiencies to mitigate price increases, smaller firms don’t have as many ... READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: How the “real” unemployment rate affects policy decisions
Even as the Labor Department reported on Friday that the unemployment rate had fallen to 5.4%, it is probably an undercount. That’s not the intention, but instead stems from the long-held methodology of how the Labor Department determines who is in the labor force and who is not. Nevertheless, the ... READ MORE >
July employment report: Robust gains mark summer hiring peak
The U.S. economy is expanding in a robust manner and it should be of little surprise that hiring is on a tear, averaging 831,000 new jobs over the past three months as the service sector continues to gain pace. In July, the economy generated 943,000 new jobs and the unemployment rate declined to ... READ MORE >
RSM UK Financial Conditions Index remains stout despite risk of virus resurgence
The Bank of England maintained its accommodative policy stance in its announcement on Aug. 5, keeping short-term interest rates at the zero-bound while continuing to put downward pressure on long-term interest rates through purchases and holdings of fixed-income securities. As a result, our RSM UK ... READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims still elevated at 385,000 as the economy expands
First-time jobless claims decreased by 15,000 to 385,000 for the week ending July 31 while continuing claims for the week ending July 24 stood at 2.9 million, according to government data released Thursday. The top-line figure is close to the 13-week moving average of 404,100 and the four-week ... READ MORE >
Lack of inventory dampening auto sales
Supply chain constraints inside the global auto ecosystem have dampened overall sales as producers struggle to keep up with demand until advanced microchip production ramps up. Lack of inventory and access to sophisticated technology that consumers demand in new automobiles will almost certainly ... READ MORE >
Jobs report preview: Education and service hiring to drive gains in July
We expect a net increase in total employment of 950,000 and a decline to 5.7% in the unemployment rate when the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases its jobs report on Friday. Our top-line estimate stands in contrast with the consensus forecast of 875,000 for the month, which would make for a ... READ MORE >
Honey, I shrunk the output gap: Four quarters of investment growth begin to heal the economy
The gap between the actual and potential gross domestic product narrowed dramatically during the second quarter of the year. Real GDP grew by more than 12% on a year-over-year basis while nominal GDP in current dollar terms grew at a nearly 17% yearly rate. That was enough to reduce the already ... READ MORE >