The mounting stand-off over raising the federal government’s debt ceiling has put a renewed focus on the rising cost of financing the nation’s debt. … READ MORE >
Joseph Brusuelas
Financial conditions ease as downturn in corporate debt issuance lingers
The RSM US Financial Conditions Index has moved to only 0.4 standard deviations below normal but corporate debt issuance remains weighed down by rate hikes and the risk of a recession. … READ MORE >
Blowout January jobs report likely exaggerates hiring
Seasonal noise always presents problems when estimating the January jobs picture at the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the first employment estimate of the year serves as a useful reminder not to overinterpret one report. The blowout 517,000-job increase in total employment for January, reported by the Labor Department … … READ MORE >
Fed hikes rates by 25 basis points as it approaches peak
The central bank hiked its policy rate by 25 basis points to a range between 4.5% and 4.75%, its eighth straight increase, though lower than the recent increases. … READ MORE >
RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index: Slowdown continues
The downturn in manufacturing in the United States continued in December and January, according to the RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index. … READ MORE >
Measuring the risk of default in the debt ceiling crisis
The one- and three-year U.S. credit default swaps have already spiked above levels of previous financial and political crises. … READ MORE >
FOMC preview: Fed to slow pace of rate hikes to 25 basis points
Our base case remains that the Federal Reserve’s policy rate will peak between 5% and 5.25% and stay there until early next year. … READ MORE >
The pandemic response: Improving policies in future crises
Nearly three years into the pandemic, we can use the experience of these programs to understand what worked and be better prepared for the next health or financial crisis. … READ MORE >
The pandemic response: Assessing the Main Street Lending Program
The Main Street Lending Program was the Federal Reserve’s most direct intervention in the bank loan market since in the 1930s and 1940s … READ MORE >
The pandemic response: Assessing the Paycheck Protection Program
The American economy was facing an abyss in March 2020, but because of forceful action by the fiscal and monetary authorities, it rebounded faster than expected. … READ MORE >