Last year, the issuance of negative-yielding debt generally declined as the global economy prepared to reopen. It was a sign from the investors that the worst of the pandemic would soon be over. But over the past 90 days, a different story has emerged, as rising economic and social risks linked to ... READ MORE >
Joseph Brusuelas
CHART OF THE DAY: Foreign investment in U.S. securities rebounds
It has been six months since the Biden administration and the new Congress took charge of foreign and domestic policies, and foreign investment flows suggest a vote of confidence in the economy and its institutions. The latest data from the Treasury International Capital (TIC) System indicates a 65% ... READ MORE >
Rising household debt vs. wealth: Cause for concern, or the foundation of economic renewal?
As the economy emerges from the pandemic, concerns about a debt hangover like the one that followed the financial crisis are proliferating. But with American household balance sheets the strongest in decades, we see little chance of a consumer debt hangover interrupting the current expansion anytime ... READ MORE >
June retail sales remain robust as economy runs hot
Retail sales increased by 0.6% in June, reflecting the broader narrative that underscores the American economy: Strong fundamentals around increasing employment, rising wages and savings will support a robust rebound as growth posts a cyclical peak in the second quarter. Overall growth will ... READ MORE >
Why the housing market is not in a bubble
Key takeaways Unlike in 2007, the surging housing market is in no danger of crashing. Inventories remain historically low. Demographic changes will bolster demand in the coming years. Buyers today are more credit-worthy than in the 2000s. Household balance sheets are also much ... READ MORE >
Consumer Price Index surges 5.4% in June as the economy reopens
The recent surge in domestic prices continued as consumer prices increased by 0.9% on a monthly basis and by 5.4% on a year-ago basis, according to Labor Department data released on Tuesday. While the increase in prices requires close monitoring by policymakers, the gains continue to be driven by a ... READ MORE >
Coronavirus update: Vaccines and the pandemic in 6 charts
The emergence of the delta variant around the world and among the non-vaccinated population in the United States presents another round of economic risks that are part of the reason why we recently lowered our growth forecast for the year from 7.5% to 7%. It appears that an arc of instability from ... READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Inflation expectations remain rational and muted
A look at one of our preferred measurements of inflation expectations implies that the risk of a sustained outbreak of inflation is receding just as another set of inflation data—the Consumer Price Index for June—is set to publish on Tuesday. Inflation expectations play an important role in spending ... READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Improving labor market signals increased consumer confidence and spending
There is no doubt that an economic recovery is unfolding. Since the beginning of the year, initial claims for unemployment benefits have been in general decline, falling from 900,000 per week to roughly 370,000 recently. This drop in unemployment claims coincides with a steady increase in consumer ... READ MORE >
The rebirth of industrial policy in the United States
The United States Innovation and Competition Act of 2021, a $250 billion legislative package passed in June to facilitate the research and development of science and technology, represents a sea change in U.S. economic strategy and a return of the government’s use of industrial policy. But the ... READ MORE >