Disruptions of supply chains have renewed calls for political authorities to do something about soaring prices. Is this the time for price controls? No. … READ MORE >
Joseph Brusuelas
Inflation marches higher, hitting 8.5% compared to a year ago
Long ago and far away, it was once taught that inflation has long and variable lags. That still probably applies when setting policy, managing a portfolio or making longer-term investments as top-line inflation jumped by 1.2% in March to 8.5% on a year-ago basis, according to government data released Tuesday. … … READ MORE >
FOMC minutes: Fed prepares to shift its policy normalization into a higher gear
The Federal Reserve is preparing to launch the next phase of its policy normalization by drawing down its balance sheet as soon as May to boost rates out along the maturity spectrum. … READ MORE >
U.S. March jobs report: American labor market remains red hot
The American labor market remains red hot as the employment-to-population ratio among prime-age workers surged to 80.0% in March, up from 79.5% in February. … READ MORE >
What is the yield curve telling us?
Fears of an imminent recession are somewhat overblown. A closer look at the different components of the yield curve reveals a nuanced picture of the economic outlook … READ MORE >
That ’70s Show: Lessons from the oil shortages of nearly 50 years ago
The doubling of gasoline prices in 1979 and 1980 came during the turmoil that followed Iran’s revolution and the beginning of Iran’s decade-long war with Iraq. … READ MORE >
FOMC’s policy decision: Rate hike, balance sheet reduction, revise down forecast, repeat
Policy normalization at the Federal Reserve took a giant step forward on Wednesday as the Federal Open Market Committee hiked the federal funds rate by 25 basis points while slashing its growth forecast and increasing its estimate of inflation. … READ MORE >
Life during wartime: Inflation, price controls and economic conflict
Today, with inflation at a 40-year high and a policy rate pinned to the zero boundary, policymakers face significant constraints as they try to find ways to mitigate rising costs on American households. … READ MORE >
Consumer choice, self-rationing and preparing for shortages
The war in Ukraine, the cutoff of Russian exports and the possible removal of roughly 4.3 million barrels of crude from U.S. and European markets are likely to have a harmful impact on household balance sheets. … READ MORE >
Chart of the day: Wholesale gas prices Imply 10.4% Increase at the pump
Geopolitical tensions linked to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have roiled oil markets around the world. The global Brent crude benchmark has traded around $115 per barrel and the domestic West Texas Intermediate benchmark stood at $112. A year ago, those prices hovered around $60. The elevated levels translate into rising … … READ MORE >