The number of job openings and those who quit increased in the first three months of the year, pointing to a healthy demand for labor despite the subsequent disappointing employment report for April, according to government data released on Tuesday. There were more than 8.1 million U.S. job openings in ... READ MORE >
Joseph Brusuelas
Frothy markets and the risk to the economic outlook in the era of low interest rates
The Bloomberg U.S. Financial Conditions Plus Index has reached 2.9 standard deviations above neutral, an unprecedented level that signals the possibility of froth in asset markets in line with the warning by the Federal Reserve’s Financial Stability Report issued on May 6. This comes at a time when ... READ MORE >
RSM Canada Financial Conditions Index: Bank of Canada providing global leadership
The next Bank of Canada monetary policy decision is three weeks away, and is coming at a time when talk is focused on when central banks will tighten their accommodative policies prompted by the global health crisis. The global economy is off to a better start than expected this year, prompting ... READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Estimating unemployment during the pandemic
Friday’s headline U3 unemployment rate of 6.1% for April is probably an undercount of the number of out-of-work people in the United States, not by design, but by the peculiar circumstances of the pandemic. An analysis of the labor report suggests that the unemployment rate, accounting for the ... READ MORE >
U.S. employment report: Economy added a disappointing 266,000 jobs in April
An easing of commercial restrictions, mass vaccinations and pent-up demand racing ahead of the overall reopening of the economy bolstered hiring in April to the tune of 266,000 jobs as the unemployment rate increased to 6.1%, according to government data released Friday. While this report is ... READ MORE >
Jobless claims: More good news from the labor market
First-time jobless claims declined to 498,000 for the week of May 1 from an upwardly revised 590,000 during the previous week, as continuing claims remained elevated at 3.69 million, according to government data released Thursday. This data will not affect Friday’s employment report, which is now ... READ MORE >
RSM UK Financial Conditions Index: Setting the stage for recovery
The U.K.’s vaccination and shutdown programs are an apparent success. The percentage of the most vulnerable people, ages 50 and over, who have received at least one dose of the vaccine ranges from 87% in London to 98% in Scotland, and the results speak for themselves. Newly reported COVID-19 cases ... READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Capital goods shipments maintain upward trajectory
Monthly shipments of nondefense capital goods increased by nearly 5% during the first three months of the year compared to the months before the pandemic-induced economic shutdown. The forward-looking proxy for productivity-enhancing capital goods orders, or orders of nondefense capital goods ... READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Strong automobile demand amid supply chain disruptions
The demand for automobiles continues to rise amid reports of chip shortages that are hurting production. This suggests that there will be strong profit margins in the auto manufacturing sector despite the missed opportunities to meet robust demand. This will ensure continued solid demand for middle ... READ MORE >
Employment report preview: Expect a gain of 1.4 million jobs in April
An American economy on the cusp of a comprehensive reopening is set to generate another month of robust job gains that will border on the historic. With nearly 150 million Americans having received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine, we expect a net increase in employment of roughly 1.4 ... READ MORE >