Geopolitical tensions linked to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have roiled oil markets around the world. The global Brent crude benchmark has traded around $115 per barrel and the domestic West Texas Intermediate benchmark stood at $112. A year ago, those prices hovered around $60. The elevated levels translate into rising … … READ MORE >
Joseph Brusuelas
RSM US Financial Conditions Index shows ebbing confidence
Our composite RSM US Financial Conditions Index opened Tuesday at negative 0.2 standard deviations below zero. Although not significantly different from normal levels of risk, the overall trend shows a loss of confidence and increased volatility. … READ MORE >
RSM US Financial Conditions Index tightens amid rising tensions
The RSM US Financial Conditions Index reached neutral at the end of last week and turned negative on Tuesday’s news that Russia would formalize its control of Russian-speaking parts of Ukraine. … READ MORE >
In case of emergency break glass: Reviving the enhanced child tax credit to ease inflation
With a robust economy and tax revenues surging, policymakers can look at measures to mitigate further stress on lower-income households caused by rising food, fuel and goods prices. … READ MORE >
RSM US Supply Chain Index: Omicron pauses improvement
Stress in the U.S. supply chain increased in January as the omicron surge temporarily put some parts of the overall production to a halt. … READ MORE >
Reimagining the workforce for the digital age: An RSM and U.S. Chamber discussion
Businesses will need to reimagine their workplaces, rethink their benefits and reconsider their recruitment if they want to compete in the emerging digital economy, said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist of RSM US, and Neil Bradley, chief policy officer of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.. … READ MORE >
Energy shock: Potential impact of Russian invasion of Ukraine
A Russian invasion of Ukraine would shave a little less than 1% from gross domestic product over the next year and cause inflation to rise by close to 2.8 percentage points to over 10%. … READ MORE >
U.S. January consumer price index: Inflation continues to surge
The top-line increase of 0.6% in January and 7.5% on a year-ago basis will intensify market speculation about a 50 basis-point hike at the March meeting. … READ MORE >
U.S. January jobs report shows strong gains and significant upward revisions
The net increase of 467,000 in total employment on the back of a significant upward revision to the December estimate, from a gain of 199,000 to 510,000, affirms what the household survey has implied for the past two months: The U.S. economy is quickly approaching full employment. … READ MORE >
The Real Economy, Volume 86: How the Fed is managing its dual mandate
In this month’s issue of The Real Economy, our chief economist, Joe Brusuelas, examines how the Fed, with inflation on the rise, is trying to strike a balance between maintaining price stability and full employment. … READ MORE >