First-time jobless claims declined to 576,000 for the week ending April 10, which is the lowest since March 2020 as individuals begin streaming back into the labor force and the economy begins to reopen on the back of vaccinations and fiscal aid. … READ MORE >
Joseph Brusuelas
Robust rebound in March retail sales
The combined impact of a weather-related resumption of household spending and $680 billion in fiscal aid checks working their way through the economy stimulated a robust 9.8% rebound in top-line March retail sales. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: U.S. food prices likely past pandemic peak
Food prices increased by 3.5% in March, according to recent government data, and those increases are likely to become more muted as global supply chains move back toward full production in the near term. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Rebound in rail freight is an early sign of recovery
Intermodal rail freight is in the midst of a strong recovery in another sign that the manufacturing sector and the economy have entered the early stages of what we expect to be a robust expansion this year. … READ MORE >
RSM recovery watch: Upgraded growth forecast and more evidence of a turn in the business cycle
There are arguably enough positive indications to begin planning for a return to normal commercial activity. Here is a sampling of what’s to come, or better put, what the data is suggesting. … READ MORE >
Labor market update: Signs of normalization as long-term challenges persist
The labor market is showing signs of optimism that might best be described as hedging its bets—confident that the vaccination program will eventually allow the reemergence of the normal workplace, but recognizing that it may not take just a snap of the fingers to get there. … READ MORE >
Reimagining redevelopment and innovation: A U.S. infrastructure bank
We are proposing the development of an independent infrastructure bank that would operate as the fiscal equivalent of the Federal Reserve. … READ MORE >
Understanding what is involved in a $2 trillion infrastructure project
A project that modernizes the national infrastructure means increased jobs, productivity and growth, all of which will result in a meaningful increase in the living standards for Americans. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Rational exuberance and the RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index
The manufacturing sector is signaling extreme confidence in a rapid end to the pandemic-induced economic shutdown and to the global manufacturing recession that preceded it. … READ MORE >
March employment preview: Expect a gain of 1 million jobs
We expect a net increase in total employment of 1 million, with risk of a much larger gain, and a decline in the unemployment rate to 5.8% when the March jobs report is released on Friday. … READ MORE >