Americans are being vaccinated at an average rate of 2.3 million per day and supplies are sufficient enough that states have begun to lower age requirements. … READ MORE >
Joseph Brusuelas
CHART OF THE DAY: Where in the world is wage push inflation?
Much of the talk about risks to the economic outlook has been linked to the prospect of higher inflation following more than $5 trillion in federal spending to address the pandemic. But what is often missing in that discussion is the link between price volatility and wages. … READ MORE >
Making sense of inflation: What we can learn from post-recession recoveries
It can take an average of 27 months after a recession for inflation to return to normal as sustained economic growth is attained and inflation reaches its assumed 2% target. This implies that some of the recent concerns around inflation are premature. … READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims: Expect the number to swell in coming weeks on benefits extension
First-time jobless claims remained elevated for the week ending March 6, arriving at 712,000, down from an upwardly revised 754,000, the Labor Department reported on Thursday. … READ MORE >
Economics of the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan Act
The legislation will provide a robust tailwind to the domestic economy as it recovers from the pandemic and likely boost gross domestic product by an additional three percentage points. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Lagging employment in education and health care
Even as the economy begins to recover and jobs return, employment remains well below pre-pandemic levels in many key sectors. Two of these areas are education and the health care industry, according to the recent jobs data from the Labor Department. … READ MORE >
U.S. February Consumer Price Index: Inflation to rise from a low base
In February, the top-line CPI index increased by 0.4% month over month and by 1.7% year over year. Core CPI excluding food and energy inched forward by 0.1% on the month and rose 1.3% on a year-ago basis. … READ MORE >
RSM Canada Financial Conditions Index: Bank of Canada to remain accommodative
We anticipate that the Bank of Canada will maintain its overnight target rate of 0.25% and retain its current policy of accommodation in its announcement on Wednesday. … READ MORE >
The outlook for interest rates, in 11 charts
We now expect the 10-year yield to rise to 1.75% by the end of the year, with risk of a move at or above 2% on the back of what we expect to be the best year of growth since 1984. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Amid talk about inflation, expectations have remained in check
Despite all the talk about rising inflation, there’s not much difference in inflation expectations between last year and this year, or last month and this month, according to an economic model. … READ MORE >