January was the worst month of the pandemic, with nearly 98,000 U.S. deaths attributed to COVID-19. Now, though, the totals are easing, with new cases receding to 151,000 per day by the end of January. … READ MORE >
Joseph Brusuelas
U.S. personal income and savings: Households are building impressive cash positions
Americans’ personal income increased by 0.6% in December, driving savings positions higher. The gains are creating the conditions for what we believe will be a consumer-led boom in the second half of the year. … READ MORE >
RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index: Mixed results and a potential pause in the recovery
Sentiment among manufacturers has receded again because of a rapid spread of COVID-19 that has taken a toll on the labor market, consumer demand and the economy. … READ MORE >
Fourth-quarter GDP: Growth eases as economy decelerates
The American economy posted 4% growth in the fourth quarter as the recovery from the depths of the pandemic decelerated into the end of 2020. … READ MORE >
Economic policy primer: The difference between aid and stimulus
Why is trillions in spending needed to combat the economic downturn of the coronavirus? The answer is in the difference between fiscal aid and stimulus and the lessons learned from the policy response to the 2008 financial crisis. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: West Coast container activity suggests an end-of-year pause in the recovery
Import activity at West Coast ports continues to anticipate robust consumer demand despite rising prices and the first hint of a pause caused by the resurgence in the coronavirus at the end of the year. … READ MORE >
U.S. precautionary savings and the coming economic expansion
Savings by American households have soared to $1.1 trillion above their long-term average from 1965 to 2020. That excess savings and near-term policy decisions around fiscal aid and stimulus will play a large role in determining the shape, scale and duration of what we expect to be the coming economic expansion. … READ MORE >
U.K. financial conditions, growth and the pandemic
Despite a surge in new cases of coronavirus infections in England, the RSM UK Financial Conditions Index remains 0.1 standard deviations above neutral as investors focus on what is expected to be a strong economic rebound this year. We expect growth to expand at 4.2% this year and 7% next year. … READ MORE >
FOMC preview: Addressing market rise in inflation expectations
The January meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee this week presents the central bank with an opportunity to reinforce its forward guidance, which is most likely not going to change for years. … READ MORE >
First-time jobless claims remain elevated
Initial jobless claims declined to 900,000 for the week ending Jan. 16, down from 965,000 the week before but well above the pre-pandemic high established in 1982. … READ MORE >