Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose to 885,000 for the week ending Dec. 12, an increase from an upwardly revised 862,000 as claims moved above the 13-week moving average. … READ MORE >
Joseph Brusuelas
FOMC rate decision: Policy on hold as Fed extends asset purchases
The Federal Reserve on Wednesday extended its $120 billion monthly asset purchases through September 2021 to provide sustained accommodation to the economy as it recovers from a deep pandemic-induced recession. … READ MORE >
Coronavirus update: Vaccination begins
The mass distribution of a coronavirus vaccine, which we expect to occur by mid-2021, will bolster economic activity in the second half of next year and set the stage for economic recovery and expansion over the next 12 to 24 months. … READ MORE >
FOMC preview: Extending guidance as second wave of pandemic peaks
The Federal Open Market Committee this week will almost certainly provide insight into its monetary policy path by extending the weighted average maturity of its Treasury purchases while simultaneously keeping the policy rate effectively at zero. … READ MORE >
Damp wage growth is a Beveridge served cold
The long-term economic scarring of the pandemic — mostly among small businesses in leisure and hospitality, food and beverage, and retail — will dampen wage growth over the next few years. One way to see this dynamic is with the Beveridge curve, which illustrates a downward-sloping relationship between a higher … … READ MORE >
Jobless claims: Pace of firings increases to 853,000, pointing to urgent need for fiscal aid
As policymakers continue to negotiate over another round of fiscal aid, initial claims for unemployment insurance increased to 853,000 for the week ending Dec. 5. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: U.S. job openings improve
Workers are growing more confident in their ability to find a job, according to the most recent Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS, from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. There were 5.1 million separations from employment on the back of 6.65 million job openings during October, according to the survey. … READ MORE >
A K-shaped wage environment: Abnormalities in wage and benefit growth during the pandemic
The economic distortions of the pandemic are becoming increasingly evident in the divergent fortunes of the nation’s workers. Hourly wages are rising at a solid rate among nonsupervisory workers, but that’s primarily because of the reduction in force of low-wage workers. … READ MORE >
Looking forward: Canada’s economy in 2021
Canadian output is likely to expand by roughly 4 per cent in 2021 and 2022. While this is solid, the Canadian economy is not likely to reach its full capacity to produce until 2023. … READ MORE >
Coronavirus update: More records to be broken as human toll mounts
A record 237,000 new cases were reported on Dec. 4 and a record 2,921 people died from the COVID-19 disease on Dec. 3, according to the Worldometers database. … READ MORE >