Friday’s headline U3 unemployment rate of 6.7% is probably an undercount of the number of out-of-work people, not by design, but by the peculiar circumstances of the pandemic. … READ MORE >
Joseph Brusuelas
U.S. November employment report: Winter is coming
The recall of workers and job creation continued to slow in November to 245,000, while the unemployment rate declined to 6.7%, just ahead of what is likely to be a pandemic-induced drag on domestic labor market conditions over the next few months. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: ISM service sector index growth continues
The November ISM Non-Manufacturing Index eased to 55.9, which is below the six-month average of 57.1, indicating solid growth in the service sector even as the pandemic rages. … READ MORE >
Coronavirus update: Ethical aspects of vaccinations
The successful release of one or more vaccines presents society with the issue of who gets vaccinated first and then the succeeding phases of distribution. This will challenge our society to the core. … READ MORE >
November jobs preview: Employment-to-population ratio and the likelihood of a double-dip recession
We expect that improvement in the labor market will continue to slow to near 370,000 on the month with the unemployment rate falling to 6.8% when the Labor Department releases its jobs data on Friday. … READ MORE >
RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index indicates tempered growth
The RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index is starting to show cracks in the optimism of the past few months as the economy decelerates and the pandemic intensifies. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Increase in productivity can’t mask need for long-term miracle
The Bureau of Labor Statistics recently released third-quarter productivity data that reinforced our view that a recovery from the depths of the economic shutdown is indeed underway. But in the long term, the U.S. still needs a productivity miracle. … READ MORE >
Pre-holiday data deluge: A November to remember
Among a series of economic reports released on Wednesday, first-time jobless claims increased for the second consecutive week, with the top line increasing to 778,000 for the week ending Nov. 21, up from 742,000 previously, … READ MORE >
RSM U.K. Financial Conditions Index: Adjusting expectations after double-dosed shocks
The news that Oxford/AstraZeneca has created a potential vaccine will bolster U.K. financial conditions and economic prospects heading into the end of the year. … READ MORE >
Coronavirus update: The beginning of the end
The number of potential coronavirus vaccines has increased to three with Oxford/AstraZeneca announcing on Monday that their technology is potentially 62% effective with two full doses and 90% effective if one gets a half a dose followed by a full dose. … READ MORE >