The spread of the coronavirus continues to accelerate. While it was taking about three to four weeks for the virus to spread to a million new people over the summer months, it took only 16 days for the case count to grow from eight million new infections on Oct. 11 to nine million on Oct. 27. It then took only 10 days for that figure to reach 10 million on Nov. 6. … READ MORE >
Joseph Brusuelas
CHART OF THE DAY: Estimating unemployment during the pandemic
By adjusting the number of unemployed for the number of people who are not in the labor force but want a job, and the pandemic unemployment rate jumps to 8.0%, our analysis shows. … READ MORE >
U.S. employment report: Unequivocally strong numbers
The end of the 2020 census and the loss of its workers masked a robust 906,000 increase in private-sector payrolls in October that was far stronger than the implied figure of 638,000 would suggest. … READ MORE >
FOMC: Fed policy to remain steady amid economic uncertainty
The Federal Open Market Committee on Thursday kept its policy rate steady at a range between zero and 25 basis points and made little meaningful change to its policy statement. … READ MORE >
U.S. employment report preview: Sustained improvement, downside risk
We expect total employment to increase by 580,000 and the unemployment rate to fall to 7.6% when the October estimate of employment conditions in the United States is released on Friday. … READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims: Modest improvement, but levels still elevated
First-time jobless claims continued to show modest improvement with the top-line figure arriving at 751,000 for the week ending Oct. 31. That is down 7,000 from the previous week’s revised level of 758,000, according to Labor Department data released Thursday. … READ MORE >
An inconclusive outcome: Election produces no winner, expected court challenge
The presidential election produced no clear outcome on Tuesday night, and instead brought uncertainty, financial market volatility and political risk across the business world. … READ MORE >
Coronavirus update: Constructing a plan for containment
A mathematician at MIT, Scott Sheffield, has outlined an alternative approach — and the math behind it — to our current course of dealing with the pandemic. It is designed “for a society that has resolved to keep future infections low in anticipation of a vaccine.” … READ MORE >
Treasuries remain a safe haven in the pandemic, even as transaction demand falls
Global financial markets are reacting to the resurgence of the coronavirus in Europe, the United States and elsewhere and the prospect of increased U.S. postelection fiscal spending. … READ MORE >
FOMC preview: All is quiet
Thursday’s meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee will almost surely signal that all is quiet on the monetary front given the major changes by the central bank this year. … READ MORE >