For the third time in 20 years, the bottom has fallen out of oil prices, which will most likely have enormous implications for the economies of the U.S., Canada and Mexico, and have enormous potential geopolitical ramifications. … READ MORE >
Joseph Brusuelas
RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index breaks above 2018-20 downtrend
A rebound in manufacturing sentiment implies that the domestic economy is moving briskly back toward recovery. For this reason, we expect that the October Institute for Supply Management manufacturing index will reflect a modest improvement in overall sentiment and another month of robust new orders. … READ MORE >
Third-quarter GDP: Record growth, but closing the output gap will take years
Top-line growth of 33.1% in the third quarter gross domestic product woefully overstates the impaired condition of the American economy that is still in need of robust fiscal support and monetary accommodation. … READ MORE >
Third-quarter GDP preview: What we talk about when we talk about GDP
We are forecasting a 35.5% increase in GDP at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate when the third-quarter estimate is released on Thursday. That data will illustrate an enormous gap between actual and potential output that will take some time to close. … READ MORE >
Turning to self-employment: Business formation surges amid pandemic
According to census data, nearly 1.6 million applications for business formation were filed in the second quarter. That’s about double the applications filed at the start of the year. … READ MORE >
Coronavirus update: Rushing toward a third peak
Coronavirus infections in the United States have surged to new highs over the past week as the long-awaited third peak of its spread arrived well before the onset of winter. … READ MORE >
A recession like no other: Total vehicle miles traveled plummets to record lows
Total vehicle miles traveled dropped by an unprecedented 10% in the 12 months through August. In this lies an opportunity to improve the nation’s air quality and shore up its infrastructure. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: What’s the real unemployment rate?
The official unemployment rate in our estimation noticeably understates what we call the pandemic unemployment rate, which we estimate is 9.2%. … READ MORE >
First-time jobless claims decline to 787,000, implying modest improvement
The pace of first-time claims for unemployment insurance declined to an elevated 787,000 for the week ending Oct. 17, strongly suggesting that the economy is slowing in the fourth quarter. … READ MORE >
Coronavirus update: The economic benefits of increased testing and tracing
As global cases of COVID-19 top 40 million and infections in the United States again breach 50,000 per day, the specter of a second wave in Europe and the United States hangs over the domestic economy. … READ MORE >