We anticipate that gross domestic product in the Unites States will rebound at a 33.5% growth rate in the third quarter and 2.75% in the fourth quarter. … READ MORE >
Joseph Brusuelas
CHART OF THE DAY: A shifting holiday spending calendar
The pulling forward of Amazon Prime days to mid-October may have something to do with the changing expectations around spending, inventories and advertising ahead of the holiday season. … READ MORE >
Holiday sales to limp forward as pandemic weighs on economy
Holiday spending is likely to advance at a tepid 0.5% pace as households still reeling from the pandemic pull back on traditional and experiential holiday outlays. … READ MORE >
Agriculture sector gets a reprieve with rising foodstuff prices
Foodstuff commodity prices have recovered lost ground, returning to January levels after five straight months of declines from March to July. … READ MORE >
Jobless claims continue to rise to highest level since August
The four-week moving average of first-time claims for unemployment insurance stands at 866,250, which is well above the monthly hiring pace of 661,000 that was posted in September and will likely be well above the top-line hiring number in October. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Pandemic economics, in 14 charts
The bond market, and not the equity market, provides perhaps the best assessment of the future of the economy. And these days, no matter how you parse the data, the bond market is telling a clear story: The corporate sector and the broader economy remain at risk. … READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims: If you’re not confused, you’re not paying attention
Pandemic economics has brought about an interesting conundrum: The pace of firings in the economy remains above the monthly hiring data as the unemployment rate falls. Over the past six weeks, first-time claims for unemployment insurance have averaged 867,000. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Vanishing public-sector education jobs
Over the past six months, state and local government employment averaged 720,000 fewer education positions and 390,000 fewer non-education positions than last year. That’s 1.1 million total government job losses. … READ MORE >
Revising our growth forecast into 2021
Based on recent political developments, we are reducing our fourth-quarter forecast for gross domestic product to 2.25% growth. … READ MORE >
Tracking the coronavirus: Preparing for the deluge
Given that many states do not report on weekends, these figures likely understate the true level of infection. At the current rate of spread, and unless the public adheres to strict social distancing practices, the RSM model looks for the total number of U.S. cases to surpass 7.8 million by the second week of October. … READ MORE >