Activity at North American seaports picked up over the summer, showing gains for the third straight month and indicating that the nascent recovery in the economy is underway. … READ MORE >
Joseph Brusuelas
Permanent job losses mount as pandemic endures
The number of people who have lost either a permanent or a temporary job increased for the seventh consecutive month in September, another indication that hopes for a quick recovery are misplaced. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: The prime working age of discontent
While women have joined the workforce en masse in recent decades, men — and their sons who could once rely on factory jobs to support a family — have seen those jobs disappear as corporate profits increased. … READ MORE >
U.S. employment report: Rehiring slows as permanent job losses pile up
While the U.S. economy has rebounded and a nascent recovery is underway, the pace of workers being recalled is slowing and gains in the labor market are likely to become more difficult to come by. … READ MORE >
Trump tests positive: Assessing its impact on the economy via financial markets
At this point, we think that any impact on the economy can be measured through the financial channel, the confidence channel and through consumer spending, with a lag. … READ MORE >
U.S. personal income dropped 2.7% as income supplements faded
The U.S. August personal income and spending report partially captured the loss of roughly $60 billion in income supplements as personal income declined 2.7%. … READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims: Improvement stalls at elevated levels
There were 837,000 initial jobless claims for the week ending Sept. 26, and 1.487 million if one includes the 650,000 first-time claims for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance, the Labor Department reported on Thursday. … READ MORE >
RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index rises for second month in a row
The RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index rose for the second month in a row in September as economic conditions continued to improve. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Junk bonds are the canary in the coal mine
The surge in coronavirus infections, which is causing renewed concerns about economic growth, is likely exerting an indirect effect on the bond market, increasing the yield on low-rated/high-yield corporate bonds relative to the guaranteed yield of U.S. Treasury bonds. … READ MORE >
Tracking the spread of coronavirus: Prelude to the cooler months
We are entering the colder months – when infections are expected to rise as people move inside – and we have yet to lower the rate of infection to the insignificant levels that might allow for the normalization of activity. … READ MORE >