We anticipate that there will be no increase in total employment for July following two strong months of worker recalls when the U.S. employment data is released on Friday. … READ MORE >
Joseph Brusuelas
In anticipation of speedbumps (or roadblocks) to recovery
Even if a vaccine is developed, there is a question that looms over the economy and the chance for a full recovery: What if people refuse to take it? … READ MORE >
Three states report significant increases in initial jobless claims
The grim news from the national increase in initial jobless claims, which are adjusted for seasonal effects, was mitigated somewhat by the state-by-state raw counting of first-time filings for unemployment benefits. … READ MORE >
US gross domestic product: Actual vs. potential output
The current Bloomberg consensus on third quarter growth in gross domestic product is 18% (RSM’s forecast is 14.2%), and that will likely be brought down noticeably in coming days. … READ MORE >
Second-quarter GDP: A historic decline that could have been worse
The 32.9% decline in U.S. gross domestic product is the single largest decline in the report since the collection of the data began in 1947. But the reopening of the economy that begin around May 1 resulted in a far more muted decline that was tracking near 50% in April. … READ MORE >
First-time jobless claims rise for second straight week
First-time jobless claims increased by 1.434 million for the week ending July 25, the Labor Department reported on Thursday, while continuing claims increased by 17.01 million, implying an increase to an 11.6% insured unemployment rate. … READ MORE >
Assessing the bond market ahead of the coming change to Fed policy
The bond market is signaling that investors are preparing for an average inflation targeting regime, a quicker and more brisk pace of asset purchases or perhaps a yield curve cap out to the three-year maturity spectrum … READ MORE >
FOMC rate decision: Waiting on September
In keeping interest rates steady, the Federal Reserve on Wednesday underscored its ultra-cautious outlook and reiterated its view that the pandemic is the primary driving force within the economy. … READ MORE >
Rational business and investment planning during an irrational pandemic
If there were any remaining doubts that the pandemic was real or that it would suddenly disappear into the warm summer air, the recent headlines should have dispelled them. … READ MORE >
Alternative data is flashing warning signs of a slowing economy
The story of the recent stall in the economy can be seen through a series of alternative and near real-time data, from restaurant reservations to public transit ridership to mobility data. … READ MORE >