This month marks the inauspicious 90th anniversary of the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act, perhaps the most ill-advised bill on the economy ever enacted. … READ MORE >
Joseph Brusuelas
Modeling the spread of coronavirus: The prospect, and the cost, of a second wave
There are now more new cases of COVID-19 infections in the South and Southwest and other less densely populated areas of the country than in the previously hard-hit metropolitan centers of the East Coast, Chicago and Los Angeles. … READ MORE >
Jobless claims, state by state: Even with overall drop, nine states have big increases
Despite the overall drop in initial jobless claims in the latest week to 1.5 million, there were still nine states that reported significant increases in first-time applications for unemployment benefits. … READ MORE >
Weekly initial jobless claims: More questions than answers
First-time jobless claims increased by 1.542 million for the week ending June 6, the Labor Department reported Thursday. Over the past 12 weeks, 44.1 million people have filed for unemployment insurance, which is roughly equal to 27.9% of the 158 million pre-pandemic labor force. … READ MORE >
FOMC preview: Expect cautious tone as Fed ponders policy shift
We will soon enter the era of post-pandemic economics that will feature stratospheric government deficits necessitating the turn to a seldom used policy called yield curve control. … READ MORE >
Defying gravity: The growing disconnect between the real economy and surging equity markets
There is a growing disconnect between the real economy and equity valuations that, if sustained, will result in slower growth and increased regulation of the investment industry. And that, in turn, will further undermine the legitimate underpinnings of capitalism. … READ MORE >
The coronavirus and civil unrest have highlighted the racial disparity in the American labor market
There is a clear and easily identifiable inequality in employment opportunities that persists to this day. Even as the worst of the economic free fall is now behind the U.S., the opportunity to address long-term and systemic inequities cannot be missed. … READ MORE >
Modeling the spread of the coronavirus: Two different worlds in the U.S.
Differences among the states in their responses to the coronavirus outbreak will undoubtedly affect the duration of the pandemic and the speed of the economic recovery in various regions of the country. … READ MORE >
U.S. jobs report: Recalled workers increase by 2.7 million in surprise lift to labor market
The nascent awakening of the U.S. economy in May resulted in 2.7 million workers being recalled to their jobs, 2.5 million jobs created and a decline in the unemployment rate to 13.3%. … READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims fall in most states, but the damage has been done
Almost every state had a decline in initial jobless claims in the last week of May, as a ninth week was added to the trend of decreasing yet still substantial household economic misery. … READ MORE >