Our projections for the spread of the disease are for total U.S. cases to approach 1.5 million by the end of the week. Based on those projections, and given the current mortality rate of 6.0%, we expect the U.S. death toll to approach 90,000 by the end of the week. … READ MORE >
Joseph Brusuelas
U.S. retail sales: April really was the cruelest month
Americans continued to shelter in place during April, resulting in a 16.4% decline in top-line retail sales. While April will most likely prove to be the nadir in U.S. retail sales, we are not expecting a meaningful near-term rebound because of the significant dislocation in the labor market and clearly diminished income horizons. … READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims, state by state: 11 now have a million or more claims since coronavirus outbreak
Expect the trend in cumulative claims to remain high as several states continue to work through the backlog of claims and as declining household income and consumer spending prompt more businesses to reduce staff. … READ MORE >
Elevated first-time and continuing jobless claims show mounting stress in the labor market
Stress in the domestic labor market continued to intensify as 2.98 million individuals filed first-time jobless claims for the week ending May 9, bringing the total to 36 million during the coronavirus pandemic. Those filing continuing claims for the week ending May 2 jumped to 22.83 million. … READ MORE >
April U.S. Consumer Price Index: Another whiff of pandemic-caused deflation
The 0.8% decline in the Consumer Price Index in April, announced on Tuesday, should serve as a cautionary tale to those espousing dead dogma around risks to inflation. … READ MORE >
A time to reflect on the reopening of state economies
There is an undeniable and understandable rush to reopen economies. But as the coronavirus continues to spread, it is also undeniable that decisions made in May will reverberate for years to come. … READ MORE >
U.S. April employment report: Prelude to a tragedy
It is difficult to ponder the significance of 20.5 million jobs lost and a 14.7% unemployment rate – the grim toll of the jobs data released on Friday — among the casualties and death that surround us. … READ MORE >
Jobless claims, state by state: Eight have a million or more since the coronavirus outbreak
A cumulative 33.5 million claims of newly unemployed people have been processed by the state agencies in the seven weeks since the economies of most states were shut down to prevent the spread of the coronavirus. … READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims continue to rise to extreme levels
The increase of 3.2 million in jobless claims for the week ending May 2 brings the cumulative total to 33.5 million during the past seven weeks. … READ MORE >
U.S. April employment report preview: A magnitude complete in itself
When the jobs report is released on Friday, we expect that there will be roughly 22 million jobs lost and that the unemployment rate will increase to 17%, both of which will understate the labor dynamics at play across the economy. … READ MORE >