Aid to small businesses and hospitals comprise the bulk of the $484 billion aid package put forward by Congress and the Trump administration on Tuesday to mitigate the economic fallout from the COVID-19 public health emergency. … READ MORE >
Joseph Brusuelas
Paycheck Protection Program: Demand for aid far outstrips policy package
The Small Business Administration’s Paycheck Protection Program, the signature policy response to provide bridge financing to small firms with fewer than 500 employees in one location, has exhausted the first $350 billion tranche in aid provided by Congress and the Trump administration. … READ MORE >
Most states report drops in initial jobless claims, but totals remain staggering
The number of newly out-of-work employees moved lower in the last week in all but four states, but the totals remain extremely high. … READ MORE >
RSM Monthly Index of Economic Activity turns negative for first time since Great Recession
The RSM Monthly Index of Economic Activity is pointing toward negative real GDP growth for the first time since the Great Recession of 2008-9. Our index of underlying economic activity has been pushed over the edge by what could be a seminal shift in the labor market and a structural break in the economy brought on by the outbreak of the coronavirus. … READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims point to near real-time unemployment rate of 18.1%
The slow-motion train wreck of weekly initial U.S. jobless claims continued as data for the week ending April 11 produced an additional 5.245 million applications, implying a near real-time unemployment rate of 18.1% at a minimum. Once one adds in those not captured by the data, we are almost certainly facing a 20% unemployment rate now. … READ MORE >
Retail sales declined 8.7% in March, with more distress to come
The condition of the American consumer is impaired and will be for some time. The combination of soaring unemployment and shelter-in-place policies across the economy sent U.S. retail sales down 8.7% in March. … READ MORE >
When to reopen the economy? Beware of a false optimism surrounding coronavirus.
The outbreak of the coronavirus surpassed 450,000 reported cases of infection and 1,900 deaths per day in the United States. Our RSM model of the Covid-19 spread extrapolates a half million infections and more than 15,000 deaths by this coming weekend. … READ MORE >
State-by-state initial jobless claims show the spread of the coronavirus
The latest initial jobless claims report shows that layoffs of employees were lower in some of the already hardest-hit states, but were widespread nonetheless. … READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims surge by 6.6 million, implying unemployment rate of 14.6%
The carnage in the American labor market continued unabated for the week ending April 4 as first-time jobless claims soared to 6.6 million, which implies a real-time U.S. unemployment rate of 14.6% at a minimum. … READ MORE >
RSM introduces coronavirus projection model
This forward-looking model we think will capture curve dynamics in near real time and provide an informative and useful metric around which to begin planning on a return to full production and provision of services. … READ MORE >