Following 113 straight months of job gains, the U.S. economy shed 701,000 jobs in March, providing a glimpse of things to come. The internal dynamics inside the report are a sober, clear-eyed precursor to what is going to be the largest bloodletting in the labor market since the 1929-1933 period of the Great Depression. … READ MORE >
Joseph Brusuelas
The state-by-state toll of the coronavirus shutdown on the labor market
The widespread layoffs of American workers worsened in the third week of the coronavirus shutdown, with all states (with the exception of the Virgin Islands) now having reported a significant increase in initial jobless claims at some point during the three-week period. … READ MORE >
Tectonic shift in initial jobless claims implies 10.1% unemployment rate
The tectonic shifts in the American labor market continued during the week ending March 28 as first-time jobless claims increased by 6.64 million. … READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims preview: Expect another big increase
We expect that for the week ending March 28, 2020, initial jobless claims will show an increase of 3.1 million when the figures are announced on Thursday. This would imply a two-week total of 6.4 million. … READ MORE >
The swift and significant monetary and fiscal policy responses to the coronavirus
March 2020 has been a month for the ages – one that fiscal and monetary policymakers will never forget. Congress put forward roughly $2.2 trillion, or equal to 11.4% of gross domestic product, in fiscal aid to address current and coming economic difficulties around the country. … READ MORE >
RSM Manufacturing Outlook Index gives another sign of recession
The RSM Manufacturing Outlook Index took a nosedive in March, to levels ordinarily reserved for recessions. The index reversed the gains of the first two months of the year and dropped two standard deviations below levels associated with normal manufacturing conditions. … READ MORE >
RSM Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas unpacks unemployment amid pandemic
Joe Brusuelas, chief economist of RSM US, sees unemployment increasing to 5.75% in the April report and eventually rising to as high as 10.5% in midsummer. … READ MORE >
For states struggling with coronavirus, stimulus package is likely not enough
All states – with the exception of Utah – reported significant numbers of workers filing for unemployment benefits as state and local authorities and businesses took the lead in slowing the virus by shutting down the normal flow of interaction. … READ MORE >
New jobless claims surge, signaling hardship for working America
This week’s initial claims increased to 3.283 million from last week’s 282,000, suggesting a substantial drop in income and household spending in the coming weeks and months, and the increased likelihood of the economy falling into recession. … READ MORE >
Why shutting down the economy makes the most sense
In our estimation, sending the public back to work at this time would be premature, put far more individuals at risk and run the risk of another series of economic shutdowns should there be a second or third wave this fall and next winter. … READ MORE >