The Federal Reserve moved aggressively on Monday to mitigate what is going to be a severe disruption in the American economy by committing to an open-ended quantitative easing program and the construction of the Main Street Business Lending Program to support small and medium-sized firms. … READ MORE >
Joseph Brusuelas
Just how deep is the supply shock? West Coast ports tell the story.
West Coast port activity implies that the supply shock affecting the domestic economy is broad and deep. This strongly suggests a sharp decline in consumption and industrial activity as firms struggle to acquire supplies to make final goods and consumers pull back because of a lack of finished goods on the shelves. … READ MORE >
Jump in initial jobless claims signals an impending recession
The data is likely the first sign of the catastrophic disruption to normal life and an impending economic recession caused by the spread of the coronavirus. … READ MORE >
Preview: Jobless claims to soar in near-term
Over the next few weeks, U.S. data flow will capture the impact of the supply, demand and financial shocks that are cascading throughout the economy. Policymakers should anticipate a wave of layoffs reflecting the stunning downturn in the economy. … READ MORE >
Revising growth lower: A reset is coming for the U.S. economy
The American economy is simultaneously absorbing three distinct shocks, each of which will act as a large drag on economic growth during the current and second quarters of the year. The impact of the coronavirus will cause a disruption to American society that will last well beyond the current crisis and will affect growth over the next three to four years.
U.S. retail sales declined in February amid coronavirus uncertainty
Consumers pulled back across the board on spending in February as the onset of the coronavirus began to shape household expectations about the economy and society. … READ MORE >
The case for social distancing: Reducing economic activity to reduce the spread of coronavirus
A simple analysis shows that social distancing should be taken as quickly as possible by individuals to preserve their health and by corporations to avoid liability issues. … READ MORE >
U.S. and global financial conditions imply economies at risk
Global financial conditions continue to flash red as global central banks acted forcefully to address the economic and financial effects of the COVID-19 virus. The Federal Reserve put a punctuation mark on monetary policy, dropping the fed funds rate back to the zero lower bound (ZLB) boosting asset purchases, opening dollar swap lines and reducing the rate it charges at its discount window. … READ MORE >
Fed intervenes in credit markets, but will it be enough?
The Federal Reserve along with its major central banking partners moved on Sunday to restore functioning credit markets in an attempt to put a floor under the global economy and calm financial markets. … READ MORE >
Money market primer: How to measure stress in the financial system
We provide a series of accessible metrics that can be used to estimate stress across money markets and help determine when the financial crisis caused by the coronavirus outbreak is intensifying or easing. … READ MORE >