The American economy remains at full employment and will remain tight for the near future, which should temper calls for the Federal Reserve to cut rates further. … READ MORE >
Joseph Brusuelas
Morning market minute: Net immigration, population growth and U.S. employment
This influx of immigrants is one of many reasons why the U.S. economy has grown by nearly 3% over the past two years. … READ MORE >
Morning market minute: India’s rising capital buffer and the end of its currency peg
As India has gained prominence in the global economy, its central bank, the Reserve Bank of India, has wisely increased the level of foreign exchange holdings. … READ MORE >
Morning market minute: The end of the Indian rupee’s effective dollar peg
With the rupee trading at or near all-time lows and the Reserve Bank of India’s real effective exchange rate at all-time lows, the 2022-2024 de-facto exchange rate peg maintained by the RBI has ended. … READ MORE >
Identifying countries at risk as the U.S. dollar surges
This rise in the dollar will cause economic challenges around the world, with those in the emerging markets likely to face greater adjustment problems as they face a rising cost of external debt paid in dollars. … READ MORE >
Stubborn inflation not stopping the U.S. consumer from spending
Personal income increased by 0.3%, personal spending by 0.4% and real spending by 0.3% as households used robust gains in disposable income. … READ MORE >
Morning market minute: The strange logic of economic populism and government shutdowns
The prospect of a government shutdown and another unnecessary standoff in Congress over raising the nation’s debt ceiling are providing a lump of coal in Americans’ holiday stockings. … READ MORE >
Fed cuts rates as it signals a prudent pause to assess policy uncertainty
The Federal Reserve reduced its policy rate by 25 basis points to a range between 4.25% and 4.5% at its meeting on Wednesday. … READ MORE >
Morning market minute: What the Treasury yield curve is saying about the economy
Normally, yields would be expected to fall at a time when the Fed is cutting rates. But uncertainty over the economy and the probability of inflation’s decline stalling at 2.6% to 2.8% have helped push up yields. … READ MORE >
Inflation risk premium suggests higher yields ahead
Should the inflation risk premium continue to rise, investors should anticipate that longer-term Treasury yields will move higher in tandem. … READ MORE >