Following two of the largest economic shocks of recent history, global central banks are approaching a critical juncture. Stagnant global growth amid a structural economic shift demand a policy response by central banks still attempting to restore price stability. This makes decisions on when to ... READ MORE >
Joseph Brusuelas
Interest rate volatility: Why Fed policy guidance is less effective
In less than a year, the 10-year yield has moved more than 350 basis points in both directions, a volatility not seen since the financial crisis. The MOVE Index, a measure of bond market volatility, has experienced what can politely be called excessive volatility since the Federal Reserve started ... READ MORE >
Intervening in foreign exchange markets: The poverty of dollar devaluation
The United States has become a magnet for global capital as investors flock to its resilient economy because of interest rate and growth differentials between the U.S. and its major trading partners and a structural budget deficit featuring robust spending on infrastructure, supply chain resilience and ... READ MORE >
GDP growth slows to 1.6% in first quarter, exaggerated by volatile trade and inventory data
Overall growth in U.S. gross domestic product fell to 1.6% in the first quarter, but the slowdown was exaggerated by volatile trade and inventory data, which provided a 1.2% drag on overall activity. Final sales to domestic purchasers, by contrast, which exclude inventories and trade, increased by ... READ MORE >
Regime change: Businesses face higher costs in nominal and real terms
Higher-for-longer now applies to more than just the federal funds policy rate. It means a regime change for companies of all sizes when it comes to the cost of financing expansion or funding their operations. Whether it be high single-digit borrowing costs for large multinationals or double-digit ... READ MORE >
Geopolitical tensions and the rising oil risk premium threaten global recovery
Global oil markets are pricing in a risk premium of $7 to $10 a barrel in the wake of Iran’s drone attacks on Israel over the weekend, posing the single largest risk to the current global economic recovery. Despite in the rise in the risk premium, reflected in futures markets, early trading in oil ... READ MORE >
Financial markets update: An improved outlook for corporate borrowing
Improved financial conditions, a dynamic labor market and wage growth that is exceeding inflation all should bolster corporate earnings this year in the United States. Most important, with productivity improving, the potential for greater corporate profits and rising margins will be a theme in ... READ MORE >
U.S. jobs report: American exceptionalism amid dynamic growth
While it’s always good to identify risks to the economic outlook, too often market players mistake the condition of a few trees—there are always isolated problems—with the health of the forest. The March jobs report shows just how healthy the American labor market is, despite isolated criticisms. ... READ MORE >
Initial claims reflect remarkable job security in American economy
Initial claims for jobless benefits for the week ending March 30 show that American workers continue to have remarkable job security. First-time claims increased to 221,000 from an upwardly revised 212,000 during the previous week, which was modestly above our preferred metric, the 13-week moving average, ... READ MORE >
Full employment, low inflation and a virtuous cycle in the American economy
Until recently, the idea that economy could simultaneously have low levels of unemployment and low inflation seemed to be a fantasy. Conventional wisdom, after all, holds that when unemployment is low, businesses need to pay higher wages to attract workers, which pushes up the cost of goods and services, ... READ MORE >