The recent easing in inflation, a clear downward trend in rents and what we think is a budding productivity boom have led us to revise our inflation forecast for the year. We now expect that the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation—the personal consumption expenditures price index—will ... READ MORE >
Joseph Brusuelas
Hiring accelerates in January as unemployment remains below 4%
Remarkable, resilient and robust. There is simply no other way to describe the sustained strength in the U.S. labor market that has resulted in an American unemployment rate below 4% for 24 consecutive months for the first time since 1967. The U.S. economy created 353,000 new jobs in January on the ... READ MORE >
Productivity continues to rise in potential game changer for economy
Paul Krugman, the Nobel laureate in economics, once said that “productivity is not everything, but in the long run it’s almost everything.” The increase in American productivity over the past year, if sustained, is a potential game changer for the economy that represents that mythical rising tide ... READ MORE >
FOMC policy decision: Setting the predicate for rate cuts
The Federal Open Market Committee on Wednesday left is its policy rate unchanged between 5.25% and 5.5% and maintained the pace of quantitative tightening. The committee, however, made major changes to the policy statement that implies a coming upward revision in its economic forecast and a shift ... READ MORE >
RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index: Pullback tempered by rise in capex
The pullback in manufacturing continued into January, with the RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index slipping further to nearly 2.8 standard deviations below conditions that would normally be expected. But the pullback was tempered by an increase in capital expenditures, a reflection of the resilience in ... READ MORE >
Financial conditions turn positive amid economic resilience
For the first time since February 2022, the RSM US Financial Conditions Index has turned positive amid a robust economy, strong labor market, easing inflation and rising real wages and personal disposable income. Barely above zero, our index indicates normal levels of risk being priced into the ... READ MORE >
FOMC preview: Modest adjustments will lead to pivot by midyear
The FOMC next week will almost certainly leave its policy rate unchanged between 5.25% and 5.5% and maintain the pace of quantitative tightening. The hold in the policy rate should be understood as the Federal Reserve again signaling that it considers rates sufficiently restrictive to bring down ... READ MORE >
Spending remains strong as a key inflation gauge declines toward Fed’s target
Inflation dynamics to close out last year strongly point to a near-term return to the Federal Reserve’s 2% inflation target amid a solid labor market, strong spending and real income gains. While both top-line and core inflation are rapidly advancing toward the Fed’s target, inflation-adjusted ... READ MORE >
U.S. economy booms at a 3.3% pace in the fourth quarter
The U.S. economy expanded at a robust 3.1% pace from a year ago and closed the year with a booming 3.3% rate of expansion on the quarter, according to Commerce Department data released Thursday. The strong gains were driven by household consumption, gross private investment and government spending ... READ MORE >
A rail merger and the evolution of North America’s supply chain
The merger of two major North American railroads will create a rail network that reaches both coasts and runs through the middle of the continent. The long-sought combination of Canadian Pacific and Kansas City Southern promises to make a seamless, faster supply network that will benefit Canada, Mexico ... READ MORE >