Since the 1970s, the Federal Reserve has relied on manipulating expectations of short-term interest rates through cuts in its overnight policy rate in response to economic and manufacturing slowdowns. … READ MORE >
Joseph Brusuelas
Estimating the probability of a recession
Consensus estimates of the probability of a U.S. recession have receded and our analysis of monthly economic data imply that risks of a recession are negligible for the time being. … READ MORE >
Monitoring financial risk during pandemics
Global market participants have priced in the reopening of the Chinese economy on or around February 10, while the World Health Organization has cautioned that it is too early to declare the virus is at its peak. … READ MORE >
RSM Brexit Stress Index: Traders hedge their bets
One week into Brexit, the foreign exchange and fixed-income markets are showing signs of doubt and perhaps the beginning of a hedge on a bet that the government can quickly renegotiate its trade agreements with the world and that the British economy will be left better off. … READ MORE >
Jobs report: Strong growth amid slow wage gains, but uncertainties remain
The economy began the year with a strong pace of growth in the labor market, generating 225,000 jobs, but uncertainties point to modest activity ahead. … READ MORE >
Jobs report preview: Expect slightly slower hiring in January
We expect the economy to generate 155,000 new jobs in the January 2020 employment report, somewhat slower than the 176,000 monthly average observed in 2019. … READ MORE >
Expect fourth quarter GDP to come in at 1.7%
The U.S. economy most likely expanded near a 1.7% output in the fourth quarter of 2019, near its long-term trend growth rate of 1.8% and just below the 2.1% consensus forecast. … READ MORE >
Federal Reserve meeting suddenly becomes interesting as coronavirus spreads
What was shaping up as one of the most boring policy rate decisions in some time has suddenly gained a measure of uncertainty because of investor concern about the coronavirus. … READ MORE >
Holding interest rates steady, Bank of Canada keeps the door open for a cut
The tone of the Bank of Canada’s policy statement would imply that it stands ready to cut rates to bolster the domestic economy should growth slow. … READ MORE >
USMCA is a solid opportunity for the middle market
The pact, called the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, includes a chapter dedicated to small and medium enterprises – a first for a multilateral trade agreement – and also adopts a wide array of provisions from the abrogated Trans Pacific Partnership trade treaty. Both of these provisions are major wins. … READ MORE >