The pact, called the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, includes a chapter dedicated to small and medium enterprises – a first for a multilateral trade agreement – and also adopts a wide array of provisions from the abrogated Trans Pacific Partnership trade treaty. Both of these provisions are major wins. … READ MORE >
Joseph Brusuelas
The Bank of Canada’s dilemma — stability versus rate cut
While maintaining the overnight rate at 1.75% would appear to be prudent at the very least, we would argue that the Bank of Canada should strongly consider cutting rates in the near term. … READ MORE >
Retail sales close out year on a positive note
The health of the American consumer remains strong as outlays on retail sales closed out the year on a positive note with plenty of room for upward revisions. U.S. December advance retail sales increased 0.3% on a month-over-month basis and was up 6% on a year-ago basis. … READ MORE >
U.S. added 145,000 jobs in December as women now outnumber men in the workforce
Hiring in the economy closed out the year with a gain of 145,000 jobs in December, making for a overall increase of 2.1 million in 2019, the Labor Department reported on Friday. That figure represents a modest decline compared to a gain of 2.7 million in 2018 and is down from the cyclical high of a little more than 3 million jobs added in 2014. … READ MORE >
Jobs report preview: Expect a cooler December
We expect a net gain of 145,000 in December hiring with downside risk linked to late-year seasonal adjustments and a slower pace of hiring. This slower pace is implied by the hiring data within the ISM Service Sector report and an accelerating pace of contraction within the ISM Manufacturing survey. … READ MORE >
Increased shale production partially insulates American economy from Iran conflict
The reaction to the killing of Iranian Major General Qassim Suleimani, the commander of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corps, across oil, energy and financial markets has been muted. For now, investors are focused on the supply component of the global oil equation. … READ MORE >
Boeing’s stopping of 737 Max production will affect far more than just Boeing
Boeing’s announcement this week that it would halt production of its troubled 737 Max in January 2020 will have an impact that extends far beyond its own business, and will most likely shave 0.5% off first-quarter GDP in the United States. … READ MORE >
RSM Brexit Stress Index plunges as Johnson gains clear victory
Stress in the British financial markets plummeted as voters handed the Conservatives and Prime Minister Boris Johnson a clear victory on Thursday, signaling years of gridlock over Brexit … READ MORE >
Fed leaves rates unchanged and points to shift on inflation target
The Federal Open Market Committee on Wednesday said it had retained its accommodative policy stance by keeping the federal funds rate in a range between 1.5% and 1.75%. … READ MORE >
Expect the Fed to stick to the script
We expect the Federal Reserve will keep its policy rate in a range between 1.50% and 1.75% at the December FOMC meeting. The major interest of investors and policymakers will naturally be the movement in the dot plot, which we expect to move into alignment with the current policy rate, with 2020 to the midpoint of the current target range near 1.62%. … READ MORE >