Timing is everything The U.S. economy is signaling that the decade-long business cycle upswing following the global financial crisis and the Great Recession is nearing – or might have already reached – its apogee. This should be recognized as neither good news, nor a surprising development, given the ... READ MORE >
middle market
ADP private sector payroll estimate: Strong gains in middle market hiring
The ADP April estimate of private sector hiring released on Wednesday pointed to strong hiring by middle market businesses amid robust service sector and goods producing sector hiring. The middle market accounted for 52.7 percent, or 145,000 out of 275,000, of the total change in private sector ... READ MORE >
First quarter GDP will show moderate growth, but with an asterisk
U.S. first quarter gross domestic product likely expanded 2.6 percent, a generous pace of growth given significant headwinds from a slowing global economy, the lengthy government shutdown and a rough winter. But put an asterisk next to it, as the first-quarter expansion was driven by unsustainable ... READ MORE >
The Fed: Prudent, patient and setting up for a heavy policy lift
The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee on Wednesday signaled that it in all likelihood has ended its policy normalization campaign. The FOMC is attempting to engineer a soft landing for an economy that rapidly decelerated during the first quarter of 2019 amid global economic headwinds, volatility ... READ MORE >