Canada’s consumer price index (CPI) reached 1.9 per cent in January thanks to higher gasoline prices, which were offset by the recently concluded tax holiday. Excluding gasoline, the CPI rose to 1.7 per cent. Inflation has been at or below the Bank of Canada’s 2 per cent target for six months in a row, ... READ MORE >
monetary policy
Even with pause, Trump’s tariffs and Canada’s response establish volatile new economic reality
Editor's note: This article has been updated following news of the pause in implementing tariffs. After a weekend that saw U.S. President Donald Trump impose steep tariffs on Canadian goods and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau put forward retaliatory measures, the widely feared tariff war appears on hold ... READ MORE >
Bank of Canada cuts key interest rate to 3% amid price stability, trade policy uncertainty
The Bank of Canada cut its key interest rate to three per cent on Wednesday, but trade policy uncertainty looms over Canada’s economic outlook and clouds the future rate path. The 25 basis point cut was widely anticipated as both inflation and inflation expectations moderated while interest rates ... READ MORE >
Canada’s consumer price index rises by 1.8% as tax holiday takes hold
Canada’s consumer price index rose only 1.8 per cent in December and declined 0.4 per cent on a monthly basis thanks to the tax holiday and disinflation forces throughout the economy. These developments happened even with higher base effects and gasoline prices rising above their usual seasonal ... READ MORE >
Canada’s jobs report exceeds expectations for December
Canada’s jobs report for December exceeded expectations in several ways, a credit to a resilient economy poised to grow as more rate cuts are expected from the Bank of Canada. The economy added 91,000 jobs, and the unemployment rate dropped 0.1 percentage points to 6.7 per cent. The employment rate ... READ MORE >
Trudeau’s resignation spurs uncertainty across Canada’s economy
Justin Trudeau’s resignation as Liberal Party leader and prime minister on Monday ushers in a new wave of uncertainty for the Canadian economy and financial markets. Expect delays in business decisions, sluggish hiring and subdued investments in the immediate aftermath of Trudeau’s resignation. ... READ MORE >
The Fed is right: Strong GDP data points to fewer rate cuts
The latest estimate of gross domestic product in the third quarter came out stronger than expected, rising by 3.1% instead of 2.8%, according to government data released on Thursday. Upward revisions to personal consumption, trade and government spending drove the gains. The labor market also showed ... READ MORE >
Global economic outlook for 2025: Modest growth amid trade tensions
Global growth in 2025 will expand at a modest 2.5% pace as the sluggish recovery from the pandemic continues, according to our forecast. This forecast accounts for an expectation of higher import taxes in the U.S. market, particularly for goods that flow through Chinese supply chains. Developed ... READ MORE >
Resignation of Canada’s finance minister before release of fall economic statement adds to uncertainty
(Editor's note: This post has been updated with the latest from the federal government's fall economic statement) Chrystia Freeland’s resignation as Canada’s finance minister highlights increasing uncertainty in the country's political environment as financial challenges loom in 2025. Reaction was ... READ MORE >
Bank of Canada cuts interest rate to 3.25% as focus shifts to gap with U.S.
The Bank of Canada lowered its interest rate to 3.25 per cent — an overdue move out of restrictive territory given that inflation has largely been tamed. Expect more rate cuts in early 2025 to get the economy onto an expansionary trajectory. The policy rate should come down to 2.75 per cent within the ... READ MORE >