The unemployment rate in the United States, taken out to three decimal points, now stands at 3.458%, the lowest in 50 years and one that many of us will most likely not observe again in our career arcs. Perhaps more important, the labor market has reached a milestone: a general return to pre-pandemic ... READ MORE >
nonfarm payrolls
U.S. employment report for June indicates no recession now
An American economy in free fall does not tend to produce 372,000 jobs in any given month, as the June employment report showed on Friday. The data released by the Labor Department strongly implied that the economy is not in recession, which is in line with our base case that the economy will ... READ MORE >
U.S. May jobs report: Robust gains in total employment as wage increases ease
American firms continued to hire workers at a torrid pace in May to meet strong demand amid a historically tight labor market and 8.3% inflation. Amid that robust increase in total employment of 390,000 in May, the three-month average annualized pace of average hourly earnings slowed to 4.3% on the ... READ MORE >
U.S. jobs report preview: Expect a gain of 475,000 in October
When the October U.S. employment report is released on Friday, a central area of focus will be on the potential return of women in their prime working years to the labor force as the delta variant fades, child care becomes more available, schools reopen and hiring accelerates. We expect that the ... READ MORE >
Jobs report preview: Expect slightly slower hiring in January
Labor market dynamics this year will most likely reflect a general slowing in monthly hiring that can be expected late in the business cycle. For this reason, we expect the economy to generate 155,000 new jobs in the January 2020 employment report, somewhat slower than the 176,000 monthly average observed ... READ MORE >
Expect a solid jobs report on Friday, despite manufacturing’s weakness
The November nonfarm payrolls report will be released Friday, and despite early reports of softness in manufacturing, we still expect a net increase in total employment of 165,000 jobs and the unemployment rate to hold at 3.6%, thanks to a healthier service sector. We see this gain even though the ISM ... READ MORE >
US July employment report: “A Gentleman’s C”
Downward revisions to the May and June estimate of total employment as well as a decline in total and aggregate hours worked cast a pall over a total change in July employment of 123,000 (164,000 top line less net downward revision of 41,000) and the unemployment rate that held steady at 3.7%. While ... READ MORE >
March jobs report: Payrolls rise, but wage growth cools
The U.S. March employment report should allay fears of a 2019 recession as the unemployment rate held at 3.8 percent and the economy generated 196,000 new jobs on top of an upward revision of 13,000 to the February estimate, bringing the total change in employment to 209,000. While, the economy is ... READ MORE >