Global growth in 2025 will expand at a modest 2.5% pace as the sluggish recovery from the pandemic continues, according to our forecast. This forecast accounts for an expectation of higher import taxes in the U.S. market, particularly for goods that flow through Chinese supply chains. Developed ... READ MORE >
oil prices
U.S. gas prices poised to decline by 10% ahead of July 4
Traditionally, gasoline prices in the United States peak just ahead of the July 4 holiday as consumers get ready to hit the road and vacation season begins. But this year is shaping up to be a different story. Because of supply conditions and easing demand, domestic gasoline prices peaked at $3.67 per ... READ MORE >
Geopolitical tensions and the rising oil risk premium threaten global recovery
Global oil markets are pricing in a risk premium of $7 to $10 a barrel in the wake of Iran’s drone attacks on Israel over the weekend, posing the single largest risk to the current global economic recovery. Despite in the rise in the risk premium, reflected in futures markets, early trading in oil ... READ MORE >
Oil price increase to exert limited impact following attack on Israel
Oil prices surged following the surprise attack by Hamas on Israel and Israel’s counterstrike over the weekend. After a knee-jerk reaction upon the open of trading around the world, prices have been well behaved and should abate as the shock of the attack, as deadly as it is, abates. It is ... READ MORE >
Chart of the Day: Falling oil and gas demand implies inflation relief
Easing demand for oil and gasoline should provide relief in top-line inflation in October and November. Falling wholesale gasoline prices imply a decline of 12% in retail gasoline prices in the coming weeks from its current level of $3.79 to roughly $3.34 per gallon. This is consistent with the ... READ MORE >
Can a price cap on Russian oil work?
The United States is urging its trade partners to adopt a novel proposal that would put a cap on the price of Russian oil during a time of shortcomings in global production. It’s a creative idea, but it carries risks and could result in another surge in oil prices. Middle market firms need to ... READ MORE >
Fuel oil prices reach a tipping point
American households are consuming less gasoline compared to this time last year as fuel costs continue their relentless rise. Now, with the traditional summer driving season underway, these costs have reached a tipping point, forcing many households to reduce their spending on necessities and ... READ MORE >
Chart of the day: The long-term impact of a ban on Russian energy
As the war in Ukraine continues, the sanctions imposed on Russian oil and gas imports are playing a major role in the global energy crunch. But where is this impact being felt the most? Russia, after all, was the world’s largest exporter of natural gas last year and the second-largest exporter of oil ... READ MORE >
Oil prices and price gouging: Deconstructing the price of gas
Rising energy prices have stimulated a fierce debate around inflation and what is behind the surge in gas prices. Are companies taking advantage of a stressful time in the economy and raising prices more than they need to? Accusations of price gouging and corporate greed now permeate the public ... READ MORE >
The illusion of inventory and price controls in the current economy
Systemic disruptions of supply chains over the past two years because of the pandemic and, more recently, the Russian invasion of Ukraine have renewed calls for political authorities to do something about soaring prices. With inflation standing at 8.5% and risks of another oil and energy price ... READ MORE >