American personal income increased robustly in July, likely because of the expanded child tax credit that we think will bolster overall spending by roughly $35 billion this year. Once government transfers are accounted for, personal income rose a more modest and sustainable 0.2% on the month, ... READ MORE >
personal income and spending
May personal income and spending: Weak top line, but data looks better beyond the noise
The financial condition of American households is improving as the economy moves toward a full reopening and job opportunities expand. Although personal income declined by 2% in May and personal spending was flat, according to government data released Friday, one has to look beyond the noise associated ... READ MORE >
April personal income and spending: Consumers push forward as demand for services surges
Demand for services jumped 1.1% in April as mass vaccinations accelerated, almost surely foreshadowing the coming surge in service spending that will be one of the defining narratives of the economy through the rest of the year. The composition of spending showed that demand for services increased ... READ MORE >
Personal income rises 21.1% in March, with savings up 27.6%
The impact of the $1.9 trillion in fiscal aid put on the table this year bolstered U.S. personal income by a record 21.1% in March, resulting in a 4.2% increase in personal spending. Income excluding government transfers increased by 0.9% on the month. Compensation increased by 1%, while wages and ... READ MORE >
U.S. precautionary savings and the coming economic expansion
Savings by American households have soared to $1.1 trillion above their long-term average from 1965 to 2020. That excess savings and near-term policy decisions around fiscal aid and stimulus will play a large role in determining the shape, scale and duration of what we expect to be the coming economic ... READ MORE >
U.S. personal income dropped 2.7% as income supplements faded
The U.S. August personal income and spending report partially captured the loss of roughly $60 billion in income supplements as personal income declined 2.7%. Disposable income dropped 3.2%, or 3.5% after adjusting for inflation, the Commerce Department reported on Thursday. Despite those sharp ... READ MORE >
May U.S. personal income and spending: Impaired households in view
Income dynamics in May suggest that policymakers need to act sooner rather than later to support struggling American workers to avoid a quickly approaching fiscal cliff on July 31. On a year-ago basis, personal income excluding government transfers declined 6% following a revised 7.2% drop in ... READ MORE >