We expect the FOMC to cut the federal funds policy rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4% to 4.25% at its meeting on Sept. 17. … READ MORE >
r*
R-star: The role of the natural rate of interest in monetary policy and economic growth
Known by economists as r-star, it has risen to a range between 1.75% and 2% in our estimation, a marked increase from the 0.5% that had prevailed over the previous 15 years. … READ MORE >
Monetary and fiscal policy in a changing economy: Why the natural rate of interest is key to Fed policy
The natural rate of interest, also known as r-start, forms the basis for setting the Fed’s overnight policy rate and, by extension, interest rates across all maturities. … READ MORE >