Rising interest rates have taken a toll on the middle market businesses that make up America's real economy. Yet demand for labor remains strong, consumers continue to spend and inflation is easing. How to make sense of the cross-currents in America's real economy? Join RSM Chief Economist Joe ... READ MORE >
real interest rates
Rates outlook: As economy enters glide path, bond market hedges its bets
There are growing signs that inflation is retreating while the labor market remains healthy. Absent another shock, the Federal Reserve is likely to ease up on its rate increases as these dynamics take hold. Even a pause in rate hikes would most likely guide the economy toward a mild downturn rather ... READ MORE >
Interest rate outlook: Debt ceiling standoff raised the cost of doing business
One cost of the debt ceiling crisis that is lost among most political actors and the public is that the U.S. Treasury will need to refill its coffers. That need to sell debt—$1.1 trillion of it—along with a strong probability of another Federal Reserve rate hike or two during the third ... READ MORE >
The outlook for interest rates, in 11 charts
The yields on 10-year Treasury securities finally moved above 1% in January after 10 months of a public health crisis and economic distress. Though real (inflation-adjusted) interest rates remain negative – or nearly so – along the yield curve from overnight rates out to 10-year securities, there ... READ MORE >
Inflation-adjusted interest rates and investment in the future of Canada’s economy
A confluence of events and policy shifts has coalesced into a unique opportunity for the Canadian government and firms to make long-term strategic investments. The arrival of inflation-adjusted negative interest rates presents a rare chance for Canadian businesses to invest in their firms and ... READ MORE >