The recession is rapidly becoming a memory as the economy shows remarkable signs of regaining its footing. Spending has reached its pre-pandemic level and we anticipate that June will mark the point at which the economy moves beyond recovering lost ground and enters expansion. … READ MORE >
recession
The distressed real estate market that hasn’t materialized
A year into the pandemic-induced recession, property values have not only defied expectations of a drop, they have moved higher. The Commercial Property Price Index (CPPI) from Real Capital Analytics has increased almost 7% over the last 12 months. … READ MORE >
Calculating the likelihood of recession–RSM partners with UCLA Anderson Forecast
RSM recently entered into a strategic partnership with the UCLA Anderson Forecast, a longstanding and well-respected barometer of the economies of California and the United States issued by UCLA Anderson School of Management, based on GDP data and other economic indicators. … READ MORE >
Business decisions at the end of economic expansions
The U.S. economy is signaling that the decade-long business cycle upswing following the global financial crisis and the Great Recession is nearing – or might have already reached – its apogee. This should be recognized as neither good news, nor a surprising development, given the proliferation of risks to the outlook. It’s safe to say that inertia is almost always a factor when forecasting economic cycles and when making investment decisions based on those expectations. … READ MORE >
Wage growth and the end of business cycles
“It’s likely that wage growth has peaked in the current business cycle,” writes RSM Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas, “which strongly suggests that the U.S. economy has entered the latter stages of the economic expansion.” … READ MORE >
Yield curve inverts, though recession not yet in sight
Last week the policy-sensitive U.S. 10-year—three-month Treasury spread inverted, meaning yields on the short-term three-month Treasury bill were higher than yields on the 10-year Treasury note (Figure 1). The brief inversion implied that investors were willing to pay more for three-month short-term Treasury bills against the risk of holding depreciating … … READ MORE >