A 100-basis-point increase in the federal funds rate will be on the table during the Federal Open Market Committee meeting next week, but we expect the central bank will hike the policy rate by 75 basis points. The fourth boost to the lending rate this year will come amid clear signs of global and ... READ MORE >
RSM
RSM monthly GDP index: Negative real growth continues into the second quarter
The RSM monthly index of real GDP growth that turned negative in March has now dropped below levels recorded during the financial crisis and Great Recession of 2007-9. We anticipate that the decline in second-quarter U.S. gross domestic product will be the largest single decline in the modern ... READ MORE >
FOMC Preview: Insurance against a greater pace of economic deceleration
A sagging global economy dragged down by a trade war and a domestic manufacturing sector on the edge of contraction are sufficient risks to warrant a 25-basis-point-reduction in the federal funds rate to 2% to 2.25% percent when the Federal Open Market Committee concludes its policy meeting on ... READ MORE >
Tech is taking hold in Canada–The Real Economy, Canada has the story
Either by federal and local government promotion of technology or the invisible hand of capitalism, technology has taken hold in cities throughout Canada. The knock-on benefits to local economies as tech industries establish footholds include: the revitalization of city life; increased tax revenue that ... READ MORE >
Section 232 automotive tariffs and their impact on Europe
Under section 232 of The Trade Expansion Act of 1962, The Trump administration has the authority to impose tariffs on automotive imports from the UK, the European Union and Asia. On Feb. 17, the Commerce Department delivered a report on whether the import of these products poses a threat to U.S. ... READ MORE >
RSM Brexit Stress Index rises on uncertain policy path of May government
The RSM Brexit Stress Index increased to 0.71 standard deviations above neutral from 0.55 one week ago, amid continued uncertainty regarding timing of Britain’s departure from the European Union. The factors pushing the index higher were primarily volatility across the foreign exchange ... READ MORE >