With the money market at normal levels of risk, and with surging equities balancing out the caution displayed in the bond market, our composite financial conditions market is fast approaching neutral. … READ MORE >
RSM US Financial Conditions Index
The impact of expectations for Fed policy on the money and bond markets
Prices in the money market now suggest increased levels of risk being priced into short-term lending and the tightening of overall financial conditions that was missing until the recent banking turmoil. … READ MORE >
It’s a matter of trust: Financial conditions tighten on stability risks
The RSM US Financial Conditions Index sits at 1.4 standard deviations below neutral, indicating increases in volatility and risk priced into financial assets. … READ MORE >
RSM US Financial Conditions Index tightens as market sees a hard landing
The RSM US Financial Conditions Index inched down to 0.6 standard deviations below neutral as policymakers, investors and firm managers prepare for a period of higher interest rates and persistent inflation. … READ MORE >
Financial conditions ease as downturn in corporate debt issuance lingers
The RSM US Financial Conditions Index has moved to only 0.4 standard deviations below normal but corporate debt issuance remains weighed down by rate hikes and the risk of a recession. … READ MORE >
U.S. financial markets in the new year
Financial markets have started the year facing a host of challenges, including the prospect of a stand-off over the debt ceiling in a divided Congress and the possibility of a recession later this year. … READ MORE >
Did fiscal spending go too far? Assessing the global economy.
Policymakers, firm managers and investors should anticipate a significant fiscal narrowing for both public and private actors in the post-pandemic period. … READ MORE >
Financial conditions update: Rising risks and tightening markets
Despite a strong bounce in U.S. financial markets following better-than-anticipated inflation data for October, financial conditions remain tight. … READ MORE >
Monetary policy tightening, the bond market and the business cycle
Economic shocks including inflation, interest rate increases and energy market turmoil are hitting the global economy and showing up in fixed income markets. … READ MORE >
RSM US Financial Conditions Index: Risk aversion returns
The RSM US Financial Conditions Index is now more than 1.20 standard deviations below normal as losses in the equity market pile up, volatility increases and credit spreads widen in the bond market. … READ MORE >