The RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index declined in June, signaling a slowdown in overall economic activity. The reading of 1.1 standard deviations below normal suggests that tighter financial conditions and the energy shock are taking a toll on the industrial sector. Our index is a composite of surveys ... READ MORE >
RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index
RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index shows 35% probability of recession over next year
The RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index declined into negative terrain in May, signaling the impact of high inflation, rising interest rates, the lockdowns in China and the war in Ukraine. While this decline does not imply that the manufacturing sector or the U.S. economy has fallen into a ... READ MORE >
RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index: Decelerating growth as tensions mount
The deceleration of manufacturing is now in its ninth month, with the RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index signaling the potential for further economic moderation from rising prices and slowing demand. A deeper dive into the RSM survey suggests that geopolitical uncertainty and a resurgent ... READ MORE >
RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index: Geopolitical tensions and possibility of a midcycle slowdown
The RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index increased in March but is showing signs of impending economic damage caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Those warning signs may be creating the conditions for a classic midcycle slowing in overall manufacturing sentiment and activity. Our index is a ... READ MORE >
RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index: Omicron’s dampening effect
The RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index receded again in January, providing another indication of the direct effect of the omicron variant on the business community and a sign of the eventual moderation of the post-crisis surge in growth. While the manufacturing sector continued to grow, the ... READ MORE >
RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index: Expansion continues despite omicron, supply chain uncertainty
The RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index remained solid in December at 1.3 standard deviations above neutral as the economy continued to expand into the end of the year. But that strength is in question as the omicron variant continues to spread. Our index moderated during December, mostly on a slump ... READ MORE >
RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index: November was a good month
The RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index in November reached its highest level since the spring, indicating a sustained economic recovery should the health crisis not get in the way. Despite snarled global supply chains that have made obtaining goods challenging, the domestic manufacturing sector ... READ MORE >
RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index: Expansion hits headwinds
The recovery of the manufacturing sector in the United States remained intact in October, with expectations for the expansion to continue over the next six months. Surveys of manufacturing activity conducted by regional Federal Reserve banks reported increases in new orders despite backlogs, longer ... READ MORE >
RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index: An expansion moderated by supply chain and labor constraints
Manufacturing conditions in September remain far above recession levels, suggesting a positive outlook for the economic expansion. Yet surveys of manufacturers conducted by five of the regional Federal Reserve banks once more pointed to supply chain and labor issues and a reassessment of their ... READ MORE >
RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index: Still expansionary, but slipping from its peak
This has been a durables-led recovery, with employment in the manufacturing sector back to 97% of its pre-pandemic levels. But after a year of rapid growth, there are signs that the buoyancy among manufacturers is ebbing. The RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index, while still elevated, declined in ... READ MORE >